E-mobility is growing strongly, albeit at different speeds in individual EU countries. Deutsche Bank sees the manufacturers well prepared for the future, but not Germany as a location. He is difficult to keep for production.
It sounds paradoxical: Germany wants to switch to electromobility in a hurry, but may not even be able to supply the population with sufficient energy in winter. And the industry also has to reckon with restrictions because Germany cannot eliminate its dependence on gas for primary energy supply quickly enough.
Since the Federal Government has ruled out the further use of nuclear power, coal will be even more important in the coming years than it already is. In 2021, the most “fossil” of all energy sources was by far the most important. This is not likely to change any time soon either, because the renewable energies of wind and sun, despite the planned turbo expansion, need a conventional energy backup on a permanent basis due to their volatility.
What does Germany’s new permanent crisis mode mean for the structural change in the German auto industry? Their path to electromobility has finally been heralded – and at least on the European market it cannot be reversed. The combustion engine ban in 2035 accelerates the development. In just a few years, the e-car will become the norm and the combustion engine the exception for new cars, many manufacturers will no longer offer petrol or diesel engines before 2030.
But how many of the battery vehicles and their added value will still take place in Germany? What are the positive and negative effects of structural change on employment in the automotive industry? That was determined by Deutsche Bank in a recent study available to FOCUS Online.
These are the key findings of the study by Deutsche Bank Research:
This development is being exploited by investors from China, among others, who are taking advantage of faltering supplier companies. According to Deutsche Bank Research, almost 13 percent of all jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany have been cut since mid-2018; in the case of car manufacturers, on the other hand, it was “only” seven percent. It is noteworthy that China not only wants to overtake the western car giant in terms of electromobility, but could also secure the remaining development potential for combustion engines.
The analysts make it clear that the beginning decline of suppliers could only be the beginning of a development that threatens Germany as a business location. “In the course of structural change, it is likely to become increasingly difficult for cost reasons to keep the production of passenger cars in the volume segment in Germany. The most recent example of the Ford assembly plant in Saarlouis illustrates this. In the group’s internal competition, the plant lost out to the location in Valencia, Spain.” According to the study, car manufacturers are ultimately better equipped for the future than Germany as a production location, and the lack of materials and raw materials is currently making the situation more difficult for suppliers.
The production of climate-neutral fuels could make sense in addition to e-mobility, but their costs would have to fall sharply for this to happen. “If in 2035 and beyond there are still niche applications in the segment of passenger cars and small commercial vehicles in the EU that cannot be covered with pure battery-electric mobility, e-fuels could be a sensible option. If they are widely available, the emissions of the Existing vehicles will be reduced that have a combustion engine,” according to the Deutsche Bank analysts. It is still unclear whether and to what extent e-fuels will be an exception to the ban on new registrations of combustion engines from 2035.
While the electric car lobby is massively against e-fuels, they fear that purchase premiums and tax breaks will disappear in the future. Apparently, this fear is also justified: “If subsidies for electric cars are reduced, this will dampen demand, even though e-cars will become cheaper relative to vehicles with combustion engines,” says the study
The goal of having at least 15 million e-cars in Germany by 2030 is rather unrealistic as things currently stand. In any case, both car manufacturers and buyers will have to step on the gas if the goal is to be achieved: in Germany a total of 2.26 million cars registered (as of 2021). Assuming that this number stays roughly the same, the number of registered electric cars would have to increase so much that the e-share of new registrations would be almost 100 percent by 2025 at the latest. This would then result in the desired 15 million electric vehicles in 2030. Most recently, however, new car registrations fell by 18 percent. The longer inflation and the energy crisis last, the more likely the numbers will continue to fall rather than approaching the old figure of 2.26 million.
Fixating on production numbers isn’t necessarily the route that many manufacturers will take, however. According to Deutsche Bank Research, they have concentrated on high-margin models in the past few quarters, and in the electric sector these are primarily large and expensive SUVs and luxury sedans.
On our e-mobility portal EFAHRER.com you will find all e-vehicles available on the German market
You can also arrange a test drive for the car of your choice free of charge and thus start e-mobility in an uncomplicated manner.
