The credit insurer Allianz Trade primarily classifies countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East as at risk. In some countries, the rise in prices could even lead to the downfall of governments, the study continues.
In countries particularly in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, rising food prices could lead to social unrest, according to a study. Eleven countries that are net importers of food or are dependent on imports of food that has become scarce, such as grain, are particularly at risk, writes the credit insurer Allianz Trade in a study published on Tuesday. These are Algeria, Tunisia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Sri Lanka.
Accordingly, there is less of a risk of social conflicts in countries such as Romania, Bahrain or Kazakhstan. The insurer also categorizes Saudi Arabia and China as vulnerable, although the risk there is slightly lower as the two countries have stronger finances.
In some countries, the rise in food prices could even lead to the overthrow of governments like in the Arab Spring, the insurer warns. Even before the mass protests in several Arab countries at the time, food prices had risen by 50 percent. Today, the wheat price is even higher than it was in 2012. “If we don’t feed the people, we’re feeding the conflict,” Allianz Trade sums up the situation.
