The world economy, even in the absence of the second wave of the pandemic and new restrictions will be reduced in 2020 by 6%, in the case of re-emergence of decline will increase to 7.6%, from the updated forecast of the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD). In the Euro area, the rates will drop more than 9%, USA — 8.5%, the Russian economy may be short of 8% of GDP.The organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) on Wednesday published its economic Outlook, according to which the fall in world GDP in 2020 could reach 6% in the absence of the second wave of the spread of the novel coronavirus and 7.6% — in its appearance before the end of the year. Next year, the OECD predicts global growth of 5.2% if the second wave will not, otherwise, the global GDP will grow only 2.8%. Among the key risks in the OECD is called the fall in employment among the most vulnerable groups of the population, the growing debt burden and increasing volatility in financah developing countries.In a more positive scenario, the most pronounced decline is observed in the Euro area (minus 9.1 percent) and the UK (minus 11.5 percent). In Germany, GDP in the OECD will shrink by 6.6%, whereas in France 11.4%, Italy — by 11.3%. In the US, a decline of 7.3%. In the case of the second wave of the Euro area will shrink already by 11.5%, UK 14%. In Germany a reduction of 8,8%, France 14.1%, and in Italy 14%. In the US decline will increase to 8.5%.In 2021, the organization is waiting for the recovery of the Russian economy — but in the absence of the second wave on 6%, and if it is available — only 4.9%. We will remind, the official forecast of the Ministry of economy suggests a decline in GDP in 2020 to 5%, and in 2021 — an increase of 2.8%. The Bank of Russia expects recession in 2020 in the range of 4-6%. In the first quarter, according to preliminary data of Rosstat, the economy grew by 1.6% in annual terms.The OECD forecast is the most pessimistic among the major international organizations. So, the world Bank June 8, reported that predicts the decline of the world economy in the current year by 5.2%, while in 2021 the world Bank expects global GDP growth of 4.2%. The IMF did not updated the forecast since the beginning of April, when it was expected a decline of 3% this year, with a rebound to 5.8 percent next. The rating agencies also expect a smaller decline in Fitch’s estimate it is 4.6% (with growth of 5.1% in 2021-m).Tatiana Edovina
