Ukraine is an official candidate for accession to the EU. And could remain so for the foreseeable future – or forever. Nevertheless, the decision is more than just a symbolic act against Vladimir Putin. And it is now not only up to Ukraine’s efforts, but also to the EU to show whether this step is more than just a gesture.
After months of war and daily appeals by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the time has come: Ukraine is officially a candidate for accession to the European Union. The decision at the EU Council summit comes a week after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine deserved candidate status because it had “clearly demonstrated the country’s aspirations and determination to uphold European values.” and to live up to standards.”
So it was quick. Faster than for other countries, some of which have been trying to become a member of the EU for years. But for Ukraine, too, the road to joining the international community is likely to be a long one – and perhaps even never to the goal.
For now, candidate status is primarily a moral victory for war-torn Ukraine. And a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had practically denied Ukraine the sovereignty of its own state.
But this symbolic victory could soon fizzle out, and then Ukraine, like other accession countries, will have to face the very practical challenges of being a candidate country. And that involves enacting reforms that would be difficult, lengthy and costly even in normal times – but potentially impossible to implement while the country tries to ward off an invasion by a world power.
Ukraine has been seeking EU membership since the 2004 “Orange Revolution,” renewing the demand at the Maidan protests in 2013 and 2014 when pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.
But a candidate status has never been realistic before. Ukraine is considered corrupt, and even at the beginning of the war in the spring of this year, many EU member states were skeptical about Zelenskyy’s demands for membership. Internally, it was said that at least ten of the 27 member states were against candidate status for Ukraine. But the fear of being on the wrong side of history in the face of Russia’s brutal attack has now probably caused many EU members to rethink.
It could still be years before Ukraine can join the EU. According to the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, it takes an average of four years and ten months for a country to join the EU. Some member states in Eastern Europe even had to wait up to 10 years.
The recording process is long and complicated. Ukraine must first meet the Copenhagen criteria, which among other things are intended to ensure that a state has a free market economy, the rule of law and a functioning democracy. According to this, Ukraine must carry out various domestic reforms in a wide variety of areas, for example in the economy, the judiciary or civil society. And then it still needs the approval of the European Council.
It could also be critical that this process requires the consent of all 27 member states in many phases. In addition to actual concerns, the states could also use their veto rights to negotiate their own political advantages – or more EU funds for themselves.
Reservations about the admission of Ukraine and other potential accession states such as Moldova or Bosnia-Herzegovina are mainly limited to three core areas: concerns about deeply entrenched corruption structures, the hole that Ukraine could tear in the EU budget, and the shift in power within the EU from West to East.
It could well be that Ukraine’s EU chapter ends with the status of “candidate country”. Turkey, for example, applied as early as 1987, became a candidate in 1999, and has probably never been further from EU membership than it is today. And other states such as Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina have repeatedly held talks with the EU – so far without success.
The collateral damage of yesterday’s decision also becomes clear here: Ukraine managed to become a candidate for accession within a few months – while other Balkan states have been waiting for their efforts and reforms to be recognized for years.
If Ukraine were to join the EU now, it would be the fifth most populous member state – and by far the poorest. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine’s per capita gross domestic product last year was EUR 4,625, less than half of the currently poorest member country, Bulgaria, at EUR 11,092. A total of 14.16 billion euros are planned for the accession candidates from 2021 to 2027 as so-called pre-accession aid for reforms. It is likely to be a drop in the ocean: the reconstruction of the heavily indebted and devastated Ukraine will probably cost well over a trillion euros.
A report from the EU summit, reported by The Washington Post, suggests that Ukraine’s membership may depend on the bloc’s “ability” to “welcome new members”. In concrete terms, that could mean: First of all, the EU wanted to revise long-overdue rules before allowing newcomers to have a say.
The community of states, with “only” 27 members, is already showing itself to be sluggish. There are always blockages, especially in important areas such as foreign policy, where decisions have to be made unanimously. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz therefore recently suggested ending the principle of unanimity for some decisions, only then can the EU make itself “enlargeable”.
Ukraine’s accession status therefore remains a euphoric signal with a melancholic outlook for the future. Nevertheless, with the decision, the EU, and thus Europe, has made what is probably its strongest contribution to date against the Russian invasion. It is likely to damage Russia more than delivered weapons and ammunition. Because the decision is also an admission that the Russian attack is not only aimed at Ukraine, but also at the European system and everyone who supports it. And with its decision, the EU shows that it is prepared to defend this system and its values beyond the supply of arms. For the EU, which is sometimes cumbersome and slow, this is a small turning point.
