From the war that raged in recent weeks between working in Russia retailers and owners targetrow, hardly anyone will be the winner. After a pandemic experienced in almost all countries in the world for these subjects the real estate market, who considered each other to collapse the partners will probably be meaningless. In a new reality, where the fear of epidemic is unlikely to back down, the Russians may lose all interest in crowded malls with hours of shopping and entertainment at the food courts. Possible future targetrow — commercial kitchens, medical centers and a blind wall of the terminals. But the best option is parks cinemas and coworking is networking fast food.”We want to hamstring”the owner of the group “Regions” Amiran Mutsoev in the second half of February enthusiastically showed Vladimir Putin the new development project of the company constructed in Nagatinsky Zaton in the South of Moscow indoor amusement Park “dream Island” with a huge retail space. This caused a debate among the townspeople, believing that instead of the Park was essentially a giant shopping Mall. A month later, the businessman was forced to close the object: city hall, declaring in connection with the pandemic coronavirus mode of isolation of the Muscovites, indefinitely banned all targetrow and entertainment zones.Now Mr. Mutsoev quite a different mood. “We want to clamp in a vise, and it’ll ruin the business”,— said “Kommersant” the businessman. He has in mind flared up in recent weeks, the row between retailers and the owners targetrow. The subject of the contention was made by the Federal government to the state Duma a bill allowing the tenants of shopping premises to unilaterally terminate the contracts without penalty. First hurry to pass the bill in the current edition, the second require you to do this, otherwise many developers will break down the business model, and they will have to declare defaults on loans. The same group of “Regions” took in 2018 VTB loan of 45 billion rubles for the construction of the Park, whose total cost Amiran Mutsoev was previously estimated at $1.5 billion In a comatose state and non-food retailers who also suffered in the crisis caused by the COVID-19. “At the first hint of a pandemic, about a month and a half before the Declaration of quarantine measures, traffic torgtsentrov decreased by 40-50%”,— says the Deputy Director of the Russian representative office of S. Oliver Shoes Jana and Ivan Shahin. According to his calculations, which he quotes the correspondent of “Kommersant” Nikita Shurenkova, the revenue figures of fashion operators will be 60-70% from that which was last year. But this positive Outlook may be unrealistic. Judging by the experience of the EU, resolution on the opening of stores does not mean full the resumption of trade. In Spain, for example, a retailer is dissatisfied with the requirements of the authorities to prohibit sales to avoid the influx of buyers. They require the government to give explanations on this matter.Changing mental potrebitelyam consultants working in the commercial real estate market, it is expected counting on the return of the old life. “After the lifting of restrictions people will be happy to return to their habits of spending time with friends, family, and the importance of targetrow as meeting places will become even more than before mode isolation”, said a leading analyst of “Store of stores” Yaroslavna Shilova. In the first stage of lifting the restrictive measures, you can expect a surge of offline consumption, agrees operating officer Malltech (owner of regional targetrow) Kirill Stepanov.These two thesis casts doubt on the managing Director of the center for urban studies Yulia Shulga:”After the lifting of restrictions people are unlikely the first thing you will want to go to torgtsentrov where you can deal with a large number of people in a confined space”. A similar pattern was observed after the tragic death due to fire visitors torgtsentr “Winter cherry” in Kemerovo. In many cities of the country for some time people were afraid to visit malls and even small torgtsentrov, which on some days the attendance at these facilities fell by 10-20%. This reaction of consumers did not last long. But the pandemic coronavirus can change the situation dramatically.Right now, according to the observations of the Director of Department of trading real estate Knight Frank Evgenia Akberdieva, formed a new generation of consumers that will not, as before, be ranked by age. “Most likely, they will be determined by the personal and mental characteristics, which will be the result of the experience of the pandemic experience,” the expert believes.But the traffic, she said, is still at a low level — on average, 20-50% lower compared to the same period a year earlier.In Mall like malls udaharana for urbanists and urban planners as an eyesore. “They became cities in the city, isolated spaces not included in the environment,— says the partner of the Bureau Citymakers Peter Kudryavtsev.— But the traffic in them is huge, and for many they have replaced the public space.” “Comfortable urban space — convenient streets, squares, parks — in essence are the shopping malls, but under the open sky”— supports colleague Julia Shulga.But it’s in a perfect world, described by urbanists, urban space should be safe for the citizen. Otherwise the situation may develop, for example, in South Africa: at the time of stay per visitor in the torgtsentrov varies from five to ten��hours a week. For those who have been to South Africa, it is obvious that torgtsentrov there are the most safe places: people go there not so much to shop, how to spend time. In Russian cities the situation is similar: stay single visitor up to seven hours a week.This is confirmed by the opinion of Kirill Stepanov: “In regions of high-quality torgtsentrov large format often become one of the key infrastructure at the convergence of retail and interteymenta”. In fact, “these objects replace the full leisure of citizens pseudoculture summons giant shopping malls,” says co-founder of architectural Bureau Wowhaus Oleg Shapiro.The factory-kitchen in place suticases retail market is global reset which will positively affect this sector in a historical perspective, but at the moment can’t pass without significant losses for business. This point of view in conversation with the correspondent of “Kommersant’ Alexandra Mertsalova by the Executive Director of Fund “Institute for urban Economics” Tatyana Polidi. “If in the summer we will see a wave of release space, then the fall will begin a period of stabilization, which will enter its active phase in the end of 2020,”— said the expert.The Russians are not to entertainment and shopping. This conclusion arises from the results of a survey commissioned by the “b” research center Yes Group. The operators of all these segments and are tenants targetrow. The General decline in consumer spending in April 2020, according to a preliminary assessment “Cerdanya”, will be about 700 billion rubles year-on-year.Now, according to him, there is a “natural cleansing” among targetrow. The business model targetrow that worked prior to the introduction of restrictive measures will not be effective in the new reality, says the Director GK “Footwear of Russia” Anton Titov.Many of the respondents “b” retailers, consultants, developers and urbanists agree that the pandemic has led to a surge in online trading, which has already begun to change the landscape of the market.”Cinemas and food courts, which had previously been traffic generators buyers in torgtsentrov, will not be able to perform this function,”— says Anton Titov.Russia in this regard is not unique. So, in the UK, according to Knight Frank, in the segment of non-food retail, the share of e-commerce has increased to 40%. For online purchases switched even people who previously were not active Internet users, said Mr. Titov. “Perhaps in the near future we will see from targetrow attempts a deep integration of online, what will result, for example, to the mass launch of its own marketplace,” he predicts. In the retail business the substitution of the key characteristics of successful��STI shops with the location in convenient logistics, says Ivan Shahin, “the Value of the location of the outlets is lost with the advent of superfast delivery from an online store directly to your home or to the buyer at a convenient point of delivery close to home — the so-called pickup points”. Therefore, does not preclude the Director of retail Department, CBRE Marina Malakhatko in the most affected by the current crisis torgtsentrov the empty space will be filled with formats that need is not so much the traffic as the specific address: the points of issue of orders with the city’s warehouses and commercial kitchens.But Knight Frank, referring to the predictions of their colleagues from the UK, warn that the situation may be different. “As soon as in Britain, the stores will be opened, the proportion of online sales of non-food products will return to previous levels (before the date of closure of shops) is about 20% and will resume pre-crisis growth trajectory,” reads the company’s report.Another solution would be the organization of space with only the temporary tenants, says Catherine Sitanova.
According to her, this concept is implemented in the new torgtsentr SKP-S in Beijing, where the entire third floor is given over to temporary outlets — pop-up store.You may receive a new pool of tenants — for example, medical centers that are able to open their establishments in shopping malls. “Now the projected growth in demand for medical services, because the Russians already thought seriously about regular health check,”— says Eugene Akberdieva.”Cultural curse” of gorodov recent weeks, disputes among the participants of the retail market sparked talk about a possible appearance in the near future in the Russian cities targetrow ghosts. The tone of the debate asked the main architector of Moscow Sergey Kuznetsov. “If the market is to say that the large format targetrow is not profitable, it is likely that we will see that it is unprofitable to be redone… most Likely it will be demolished, and the owner quietly parted with the property and sells the land differently,” he said at one of the online conferences. Perhaps in place of the Mall will build residential complexes: this segment of the market in any crisis one way or another adapted to the circumstances. In principle, this trend began to take shape even before the “virus” of the crisis. At the end of 2019 has been predicted that across the country three years later their work can stop about a hundred targetrow a total area of 1.2 million sq. m. From the same speech of Mr. Kuznetsov became clear that he adheres to the idea of creating small retail formats. “I hope— he said— that big business players will go that route and start making hundreds of small shops instead of one big one”. “In the existing torgtsentrov fussKNET smaller parceling spaces that will meet the new health standards,” agrees Peter Kudryavtsev. In his opinion, in the malls you can try to integrate custom office functions, for example, coworking, or single jobs. “In the future, the expert predicts, will be less networking and more individual small formats, where the owners are engaged in business.”Of course, sooner or later people will begin to return to the docks, no doubt Yulia Shulga. But the owners of facilities to attract visitors will not be able to restrict a food court and a traditional set of stores, she said. You will need to develop other functions — primarily cultural, social and recreational.In the new situation there is a unique chance to put together the city and shopping centre and transform the latest in a hybrid public space, says Mr. Kudryavtsev. “In fact, torgtsentrov should become parks, places in which a person, alone, with family or friends, can spend a few hours or even a whole day, even without paying for anything,” he said. And leads your experience with IKEA. The Swedish company integrates into their torgtsentrov “Mega” parks. “Therefore, describes the project Peter Kudryavtsev, you could try to erase the boundaries between external and internal. This will prolong the stay of the customers in their territory, transformerait the object from the trading zone of entertainment is a natural”. This will encourage your visitors to switch from one activity to another, he said. That is tired of shopping went down to the first floor, in the Park, or walked through the alley.”After exiting the isolation many employees of large companies, apparently, will have the opportunity to partially work “on distance”. That is, some residents will remain during the daytime in their sleeping area, the respectively formed a serious request for more quality and diverse environment, saturation of these areas all urban services, as well as entertainment and cultural features”,— says Mr. Shapiro. Such functions, in his opinion, may be under the same roof in the same torgtsentrov. Consumers of this format, when a local torgtsentrov transformed into a kind of community for the whole district, might like, does not exclude Marina Malakhatko.Kirill Stepanov from Malltech is also hoped that torgtsentrov, especially super-regional format, will create a social platform, which will be implemented educational, entertaining projects. “In some cities this is already happening,” he said.”Then more important will be the role of curators and event programs that could implement the projects taking into account the interests of the city and the private biSNES,” adds Petr Kudryavtsev. In such event-driven program, in his opinion, it will be possible to integrate into the surrounding streets and even the Parking lot. Thus, it appears solid and perhaps a self-sufficient urban space. “The torgtsentrov will have to find a compromise with the surrounding space,” describes Julia Shulga ideal future.It is possible that we will soon see a new wave of gentrification, but not industrial areas, and targetrow. “Outdated shopping centers should be given a chance at salvation,” said Mr. Shapiro. It is the reprogramming and the creation of new business models, concludes the architect will allow these objects, “cultural curse.”Khalil Amine
