Russian scientists created two models of incidence COVID-19 in the regions of the country. One of them was presented by the company-developer of analytical products Megaputer Intelligence, and the second developed at the project office on the mathematical modeling of the Ufa aviation University and Bashkir medical University.
In accordance with the first model, some regions included the Central, North Western and Volga Federal districts, as well as a number of far Eastern regions have already reached the peak in the incidence of coronavirus. In a realistic scenario, represented by Megaputer Intelligence, Moscow region the peak value of daily growth of new cases was achieved on 12 may and in Moscow on 6 may. But there is a pessimistic forecast, which promises that the peak incidence in Moscow can be expected only on may 26 and then may be locked 6.2 thousand new cases per day.
In the whole country, scientists predict the peak incidence in a realistic scenario may 20, and pessimistic – may 29.
by the Way, due to the fact that the forecast is presented in the form of an interactive map information about the total number of deaths, recoveries and the timing of the onset of the peak one can look like for the country and for each region separately.
Presented to the developer’s forecast said RBC that the forecast is based on analysis of data from official sources using machine learning algorithms and predictive Analytics. The system takes into account the distribution of infections between regions, as well as the rigor of quarantine measures in a particular subject.
the Second model created by scientists from Ufa, who calculated that the peak incidence in Russia was held on may 8-9, when the daily increase in confirmed cases was about 10.5 thousand.
As explained to the edition, the head of the project office in part of mathematical modeling and forecasting of USATU Irina Luckman, they revealed a number of regularities in the development of the epidemic in the regions of Russia. A gradual increase due to early introduction of restrictions, then flash in crowded places, and then the exponential phase, and in mid-may, the incidence reaches its peak.
In accordance with the Ufa model in small regions, the development of coronavirus took control by 15 may, and in large though the situation remains tense, but the growth rate of recovery is higher than the rate of infection.
the basis of the Ufa forecasting model of classical epidemiological models and tools of analysis of time series. The forecast horizon is 7-10 days, but the accuracy of 96-97 percent.
