It is one of the authors of creating this mathematical model. The scientist explained to reporters what conclusions can be drawn on its basis about the effectiveness of the country’s measures. And told how to change the economy after the victory over the “crown”.
To create the models take into account several parameters such as time, the number of people susceptible to the virus and are in incubation.
The key, the most important indicator that emphasizes Alexey Borovkov, is the intensity of effective contacts, that is, the intensity of the transition of infected persons in a category of cases.
the Scientist noted: at the start of the epidemic it was thought that each infected person infects 2-3 people. But recently published the results of studies of foreign scientists, showing that this ratio is 5-6. That is one sick infect 5-6 people. Borovkov emphasizes: it is clear that the intensity of the effective (i.e. leading to infection) contacts depend on time. But because all the restrictions that are imposed in cities and other settlements of the country, is extremely important.
They aim to reduce contacts. In St. Petersburg alone from 13 March to 3 April, the authorities adopted a nine restrictive measures, including provisions of self-isolation, the transition to distance learning and remote work.
“we got the charts, proving that these measures have helped to prevent the explosive development of the situation, – says Alexey Borovkov. But it is extremely important to consider this point: once we reach the plateau, it is necessary not to break in the Exhibitor again. The weakening of the injunction may give the society a signal: it is now possible. And capacity of communication can lead to a new explosion.”
Alexey Borovkov says: the creation of a model occurs in the context of uncertain data. And because forecasts are not for exact date and a period – interval of time. This is called pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. “Characteristics of the situation, which are expected at the calibrated mathematical model, we give in advance, and then Refine them after the fact, the scientist said. – So far all our predictions come true.” What are they for the future?
First, about the optimistic scenario. “If all restrictive measures relating to isolation, are to be strictly followed, he said, in the first half of June we will have in St. Petersburg and Leningrad region, 40 thousand infected”. And if not? “If the disposal of the authorities will be implemented with serious violations, warns Alexey Borovkov, the situation could deteriorate at three times.”
the question is: what if the government did not introduced restrictive measures? What then? Scientists estimate, then in 20 days of may in St. Petersburg and Leningrad region there were already up to two million inficere��data.
an Important result, now measures a mathematician considers the fact that the stuttering self-isolation of infected growth has allowed public health to prepare for extreme operating conditions.
is it possible on the basis of mathematical modeling to understand which socio-economic consequences of the Russians after the exit from the crisis? Alexey Borovkov says that you can. According to his estimates, the economy will experience a situation such as the rejection of development projects, curtailing close-UPS, localization tasks on the “small Islands”.
“taking today the measures of economic aid to businesses, he said, had been intended to as in health care during the epidemic, the industry had time to prepare for future challenges. Smearing problems in the time necessary to mitigate their severity, the time to synchronize actions to avoid a serious imbalance of all processes. Yes, it leads to stagnation and recession. But this is a less painful way than the acute crisis of all sectors”.
as for education, then, according to Alexey Borovkov, remain unclear three questions: exam, entrance exams for universities and the beginning of the next school year. According to some estimates, about 500-600 universities in Russia may be short of the required number of entrants.
“Often I get asked the question: it would be better to introduce a regime of emergency? – says Alexey Borovkov. – Answer: no, not right. Because the disaster actually would have caused mass bankruptcy, the imbalance of all industries, is actually economic collapse. It turned out to be no less dire consequences than an epidemic. Our happiness that we are predecessors (China, the EU, other regions of the country – approx. Ed.). We can calibrate the model and work according to the optimistic scenario.”
Murmansk oblast and the Komi Republic had already ordered the scientists to make mathematical models of the epidemic COVID-19. On turn – other regions.
All the materials of the story “COVID-19. We can do it!” read the .
