Just 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine agreed on a grain deal, bombs suddenly fell in the port of Odessa. The world is wondering if Putin has now completely lost his mind. A strategy expert explains his possible motivations.
One day after agreement was reached on resuming blocked grain deliveries, the Ukrainian port of Odessa, which is important for exports, was hit by Russian missiles, according to Ukrainian sources. “The enemy attacked the port of Odessa with Kalibr cruise missiles. Two rockets hit the infrastructure of the port,” Serhiy Brachuk, a representative of the Odessa region, told online networks on Saturday.
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Two more missiles were shot down by anti-aircraft defenses, Bratschuk added. In doing so, Russian President Vladimir Putin “spit in the face” of the UN and Turkey, according to the Ukrainian side. The UN and Turkey mediated between Kyiv and Moscow.
Both sides signed an agreement in Istanbul on Friday that provides for secured transit routes in the Black Sea for grain deliveries. The regulations reached in weeks of negotiations provide for corridors for grain exports from three Ukrainian ports in the Odessa area. The warring parties agreed not to attack ships on these routes.
Less than 24 hours later, Russian missiles have apparently hit Ukraine’s most important port – and the world is puzzled: what prompted Vladimir Putin to carry out this attack? Why is he now risking a break with Erdogan, who played a leading role in negotiating the deal?
The fact is: “Putin disavowed Erdogan. This attack is equivalent to a denial of the agreement,” strategy expert Herfried Münkler told FOCUS Online. There’s a whole bunch of possible reasons for that. A very banal one: Erdogan kept the Kremlin boss waiting at the summit in Tehran. “I’m sure that upset him and played a role in the decision to drop the deal now,” said Münkler.
On the other hand, the meeting did not end as the Kremlin had previously imagined. “Putin wanted to establish a Moscow-Istanbul-Tehran axis. That did not work. There are friendly interests in each other, but also clear differences,” analyzes Münkler. In this respect, Putin does not really lose much with the attack on Odessa. The expert is convinced that the now heavily strained relationship with the Turkish president is likely to be viewed by Putin as “collateral damage”.
Rather, Putin’s attack on the Ukrainian port metropolis is about sending a double signal. The first, according to Münkler, is addressed to the Ukrainian government and has to be explained in terms of military tactics: “Putin wants to show Ukraine that it will not be able to stabilize its lines in the long term; that Russia can also strike at any time on the Black Sea coast. In this respect, it is a relief attack”, analyzes Münkler.
With the completely unexpected Odessa bombardment, however, Putin also alienated the West; with full intention, as Münkler further analyses.
“He uses contradictory action as a tried and tested means of confusing the opponent. This back and forth, which we also see with Nord Stream 1, for example, is used by Putin as a kind of enemy reconnaissance: he observes the West’s reactions to such disruptive actions closely – because they show him possible weak points, both physical and psychological The latest attack on Odessa is anything but irrational, it fits in perfectly with Putin’s cynical war tactics.
With material from dpa
