It is vital to quickly control airspace during war. Despite its military might, Russia’s inability to control Ukraine’s airspace has been surprising. This may explain why Ukraine has not yet allowed a rout.
Moscow has been thrown off its feet by the standoff in the skies, along with logistical problems, since the invasion.
Invaders would typically seek to destroy or paralyze the target country’s missile and air defenses. This is because control of the skies allows ground forces greater effectiveness and lower losses. U.S. military officials assumed that Russia would use electronic warfare and cyber capability to paralyze and blind Ukraine’s military communications and air defenses.
One possible reason Russia failed to do so is because President Vladimir Putin’s war strategy was based on the assumption that Ukrainian defenses would collapse. This allowed Russian forces to capture Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, and then crush Ukrainian forces in east and south, without needing to attain air superiority.
This plan failed. However, the conflict’s overall trajectory seems to favor the larger and better-equipped invading force at this point. Russia has not yet committed to the fight the entire force that it assembled at the border. The invasion is only a week old. According to a senior U.S. official, only about 25% of the force had crossed into Ukraine.
According to the official, who spoke under anonymity in order to discuss internal military assessments, Ukraine still has a majority its surface-to air missile systems, which are used to shoot down planes, and most of its helicopters. The official suggested that they are still being destroyed because Ukraine’s air defenses weren’t centrally located and could have been moved around.
According to the official, it appears that Russian commanders are frustrated with the speed of their battlefield gains and inability to achieve full air dominance. They may respond by launching more aggressive and larger-scale attacks on Kyiv, as well as reducing the remaining air defenses of Ukraine.
Putin did not give a timetable when he declared his intention to attack Ukraine on February 24, 2017. According to U.S. estimates, he had already deployed more than 150,000 troops at Ukraine’s borders.
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby stated Monday that the Russians are “a few days behind what they expected to” at this stage. This is five days into a war in Europe that has been the most extensive since World War II. It’s evident that the Russians have faced their own difficulties and have encountered resistance they didn’t expect.
Retired Air Force General Philip Breedlove said that Russia launched substantial missile attacks against Ukrainian air defense sites in the first days. Yet, the Ukrainians found innovative ways to protect their missile and air defenses.
Breedlove stated that he was pleasantly surprised by the Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, even though they have declined over time. Breedlove said that Russia could bring more fighters or bombers to the conflict while Ukraine is acquiring Stinger missiles from Western countries and other air defense weaponry.
Breedlove believes that the weapons provided to Ukraine in recent weeks by the United States and other countries, including Javelin antitank missiles, have given Kyiv a boost. He said that some people were skeptical about the Ukrainians’ ability to make use of radars developed by the West in 2014 to pinpoint the source of mortar and artillery attacks and detect them.
“It wasn’t long after they had the tools and began working with them that they were teaching our new tactics, techniques, and procedures for how to use them,” Breedlove, then NATO chief, said.
He said that “From what I’ve read and seen, the Ukrainians have done an excellent job inflicting losses on Russian airborne force,”
In a wider context, in addition to failing to destroy or ground Ukraine’s air force, the Russians had not captured any major Ukrainian cities as of Monday and were moving much slower than expected, Pentagon officials said in recent days.
There were still signs of increased conflict. In scattered towns and cities across the country, fighting raged. Oleksiy Arestovich, Zelenskyy advisor, said that Mariupol, a strategic port on the Sea of Azov was “hanging on”. Sumy, an eastern city, was bombed with oil depots.
Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine. Video shows apartment buildings being shaken by powerful blasts.
Loren Thompson, a defense analyst from the Lexington Institute in Washington, said that there are two ways to describe the slowness and weakness of Russia’s advance in Ukraine. One explanation is deliberate restraint. Poor execution is the other explanation. Although we don’t have enough information to determine which explanation is more plausible, it’s important that we recognize that the Russians have many options available to them. This includes heavier cyberattacks on the Ukrainian command and controller system and air defenses.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Moscow likely realized that its original approach was unsuccessful and has moved additional combat power towards Ukraine.
It stated that Russia could quickly turn the tide of war in Russia’s favor if its military correctly identified its weaknesses and addressed them promptly given the vast advantage Moscow has in terms of net combat power.
