depending on the situation around COVID-19, BCG predicts three main options for the development of the economic situation. The optimistic with GDP falling by no more than 4-6% with the conditional name “the Rebound”, involving rapid – within two months – a victory over the virus with consequent recovery of the economy.
“push-Pull” with the level of GDP decline 7-10% coming from the scenario of permanent outbreaks of disease and economic transition in the mode “controlled risk” is the periodic tightening and relaxing constraints. And the most pessimistic scenario of a “Critical decline,” characterized by the level of GDP decline 10-15% and require a lengthy strict quarantine measures.
“room for more hard scenario with the conditional name “the Second 90″ we do not see that this is not the assumptions of a structural nature in the economy and the financial sector”, – emphasized in the study by BCG.
Experts believe that Russia has enough resources for implementation of measures of state support, now playing a key role in the economy. They see a significant “margin of safety” in the form of funds of the National welfare Fund of Russia (NWF), foreign exchange reserves and low external debt, which you can use to help the economy
country. For podsetim experts BCG, the current NWF (almost 11 trillion rubles) should be enough to cover the shortfall in oil revenues, and support business and employment in the course of the year.
“the Margin of the NWF will be enough to cover the budget deficit and support small and medium business for more than a year in case of movement on the “German” version of the support business and the economy as a whole. But for the expenditure of funds of the NWF will have to revise the legislative regulation,” – says managing Director and senior partner, Chairman of BCG Russia Vladislav Boutenko, whose words are given in the study.
it is noted that while none of the experts can answer the main question – what kind of economy will create support measures? “To some extent it will depend on how Russia will be able to use the current time for the development of high-tech sector and realize the opportunities that emerged in the course of breaking the global chains global supply chains, and to occupy vacant niches”, – stated in the document.
