According to forecasts of the FAO, meat production in Russia by 2029 will increase from 10.5 million total to 11.36 million tons, and exports – from 279 thousand to 338 thousand tons. Meanwhile, according to the head of the center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank Darya Snitko, pork production and meat exports (of all types) this year will reach the figures contained in the report to 2029. And the production of poultry meat will increase by 10 percent by 2025 – four years earlier than predicted FAO.
“Russia has competitive advantages associated with getting cheap enough compared to other countries of the world feed for the pigs, it will promote growth in the industry,” she said.
the head of the National meat Association Sergei Yushin says that in the last 10 years in Russia observed high growth rates of meat production. Today, Russia is in the top 5 producers of poultry meat and fighting for 5-6 place in the production of pork. If in 2000 the volume of global meat production, Russia accounted for less than 2% now to 3.5%. Russia is among the ten largest exporters of meat. In this year, but the Association estimates, the world market will be exported more than 400 thousand tons of meat and meat products in almost 40 countries. And in the next three years the country will put into operation new enterprises only in the pig industry with a total capacity of more than 1 million tons of pork in slaughter weight annually.
However, according to Sergei Yushin, probably, Russia will face a big problem of access to major foreign markets for reasons of a veterinary nature. Because some countries do not recognize our regionalization (the status of the region on the dangerous diseases of animals) or protects its market quotas and restrictive duties. Despite the fact that, for example, in the EU foci of African swine fever over the past five years revealed many times more than in Russia for 12 years, their regionalization recognize, said the expert.
“Today, the lack of access of Russian pork to the most effective markets such as China, South Korea, Japan, which successfully work in Brazil, Argentina, US, EU, and the brake, which can stop new investment in the sector, and adverse conditions can lead to stagnation and decline in production in Russia”, – said the expert.
meanwhile, he is convinced that Russia can become one of the important sources to meet the growing global demand for meat. All conditions for production of competitive and guaranteed safe products in our country.
According to Daria Snitko, the reduction of incomes of the population, provoke a pandemic might cause a decline in demand for meat in the country. However, this process will be short and shallow, the reduction of consumption will be less than the non -��th sector. Moreover, according to Daria Snitko, COVID will be to promote the diversification of channels of food supply on a global scale, that is at a constant volume of demand lead to the decline in the share of traditional export-import trends and growth in the share of new suppliers in new markets.
“In particular, it is possible that the first diversification of the suppliers will begin to China (on a goal have already announced the government) that will provide opportunities for the development of meat exports to the country, as well as of grain (wheat, barley, oats and others), oil of Russia”, – the expert assumes.
According to the “Center agrobaltika” of agriculture, the volume of pork production in Russia in 2020 could exceed 3.9 million tons, poultry meat – 5,1 million tons. According to the FCS, in 2019, the volume of export of meat and meat products from Russia amounted to 341,0 thousand tons.
compared to the 2018 year of delivery increased by 17.7% in five years (by 2014) – on 333,5%, and for 10 years – more than 35 times. In 2001, exports of meat and meat products from Russia amounted to 2.9 thousand tonnes. Thus, according to the national project “the Export of agricultural products”, export of meat products should increase by 4.7 times to $ 2.8 billion.
