Rapid coronaries brought down the world economy and to distract the planet from the less severe but potentially more costly disease — climatic. Than pleased both camps: those who believe that the world is not enough is actively fighting against global warming and those who believe the costs are excessive, and the problem is far-fetched.
the Fighters warming rejoice, because the quarantine has reduced harmful emissions into the atmosphere and showed how easy it is to convince entire countries and continents to go to the deprivation in the face of mortal danger. They hope that the world will not restore the ruined coronariana fossil economy in its former dirty, and immediately begin to build on its ruins a clean green future.
Their opponents are also satisfied: in their eyes, the quarantine has demonstrated that the problem of emissions can not be solved by the ban on air travel, and the rejection of the usual lifestyle in order to fight a common evil — it is expensive and annoying voters in a couple of months. They hope that everything will return to normal, and the expensive electrification of the entire planet will be delayed, as even the rich countries do not have enough money for current expenses, and gasoline handy fell after oil.
the outcome of the battle not a foregone conclusion, but the approximate contours of the decisive battle already looming. And they look as follows.
the Quarantine has reduced greenhouse gas emissions, but their concentration in the atmosphere is not falling, but is still growing, albeit slightly slower. That is the cause of global warming, as seen by scientists and almost all countries signatories to the Paris agreement, has not disappeared. The planet continues to heat up.
if All this stopped, only for a few months, and now is coming back on doverennye height.
as a result, the emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will decline this year by 6-8%, according to different estimates, the IMF and the International energy Agency (IEA). However, next year will grow by about 6%.
it will Happen because the world economy will begin to recover, and this, in turn, will occur due to large-scale anti-crisis programs, on which the world’s leading countries have already promised to allocate more than 10 trillion dollars — about the same as they spend a year on current expenses.
Environmentalists urge government to burden state aid obligations to reduce emissions. Not every generation falls the chance radically to restructure the economy, and to miss it is impossible, they say.
They are supported by the financial authorities and economists leading countries of the world, found a group of researchers at Oxford, among whom the Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz.
“Short-term reduction of greenhouse�� gases caused by quarantine virtually no impact on the long-term trend, unless it will lead to a profound change in the behavior of people, business and institutions,” he warned them.
the researchers interviewed the heads of Finance and Central banks of the countries “Big twenty”, economists, international organizations and scientists and found that among this cohort of influential people in the prevailing General view on the problem. It’s not just experts — they directly influence and sometimes make decisions about where to spend trillions of dollars of anti-crisis allocations.
All agreed that at the exit from the crisis, the recovery will be effective if it is to Finance with an eye on clean technologies, and gone with the crisis the “dirty” production and practices docovietnam to leave in the past. If I have to restore the ruins, it is better drawing a green future, not the past of hydrocarbon.
“We came to the conclusion that progress in the fight against climate change will be largely determined by decisions taken in the next six months. If they are correct, the long-term trend will be refracted and greenhouse gas emissions will start to decline,” wrote they.
They calculated that each invested in the billions of dollars brings 20% more profit than conventional anti-crisis measures of the state support allows you to create over 30 thousand jobs and cut electricity costs by nearly half a billion dollars a year.
First to the advice of the academic community listened Europe.
before the crisis, the Old world was calculated by greening of the economy away from the US and China superiority in technology and human welfare. The epidemic gave the European Union the determination.
the Crisis once again showed how the second largest economy of the planet depends on import of natural resources, food and even medicines.
“We have to learn this lesson,’ said von der Leyen. — Today more important than ever to invest in the modernization of production, renewable energy, clean transport, sustainable agriculture and regeneration of natural resources. In the end, we not only stimulate the economy and protect the environment and reduce dependence on imports”.
the First quarantine is over, and the EU are still squabbling over a trillion Euro crisis. They have not yet agreed either as to collect the money or how to spend it.
supporters of the green future I beg you not to miss the chance.
“If we replace old “dirty” infrastructure of the new “clean” and efficient in all sectors, from water supply to energy, construction, transport and agriculture��TBA — we will create much more jobs and achieve greater economic growth than would be able, acting in the old way,” wrote recently the Deputy head of the European Commission Frans Timmermans, responsible for the translation of EU “green” track, and his co-author Bertrand Piccard, a Swiss businessman and pilot who first ever circled the planet on the plane without fuel, solely on solar energy.
“So the argument that “green” restructuring of the economy, we can no longer afford — a false dichotomy. Without it, we spend more on elimination of consequences of floods, droughts, deforestation, forest fires, rise in global sea level and melting permafrost. And of new viruses generated by all this.”
Opponents of this approach believe that even the rich countries now do not have to struggle with global warming. Crisis the money may not be sufficient for greening the economy because the idea is not popular at all — in contrast to the two pressing problems, about which society has almost no differences.
first, the authorities will have to support citizens and business, is on the verge of ruin due to the imposed authorities of quarantine. secondly, virus reveals flaws in the health system of even the richest countries, and many in the first place will spend money on medicine.
the People call to put their taxes on the solution suddenly formed problems — not to die from hunger or virus. Global warming as little more than distant in time the threat to civilization risks permanently sidelined.
Such a scenario frightens activists, scholars and international officials. They warn that if nothing is done now, the present coronavirus-quarantine will seem like a passing inconvenience compared with the limitations to which mankind will have to go in the climatic post-Apocalypse.
“the virus-Caused crisis has demonstrated the fragility of certain fundamental structures of our society and thus paved the way for changing the Outlook and increasing the number of supporters of the “green” policy,” he said.
agrees With him, one of the largest investors in the American Silicon valley, Michael Moritz of Sequoia Capital.
“Politicians and businesses need to make the epidemic Covid-19 two output — he wrote in a column for the Financial Times. First: their organizations can change more quickly than they could ever imagine.”
“And the second. Those who have shrugged off predictions of a looming plague, got an idea of what awaits them if they continue to ignore scientists ‘warnings about much more dangerous threat to humanity — climate change”.
Calls to remember globallym warming even in Coveney fever come from all sides: the UN Secretary General, antónio Guterres, speaks of a “rare opportunity to change the course of history to create a world of green, safe and prosperous”. And IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva sees coronaridine chance to reshape the destiny of mankind.
“Some think the epidemic and “the great quarantine” enable you to pause struggle with another crisis that threatens our existence — climate change. Nothing could be further from the truth. And the world collects the largest amount of funds to fight both threats at the same time. It makes no sense to get out of one crisis, to be different: “green recovery” — our bridge to a prosperous future,” she said.
And now is the best time. Historical fractures such as the world, Talon greatly simplify the revolutionary changes in society, say scientists specializing in behavioral models.
Coronavirus has increased the physical distance between people, but United them in spirit. Mercantile is losing ground to the spiritual, private good sacrificed public. It is almost ideal conditions for the left turn in the policy of Western countries — the strengthening position of the state and curb the free market, say the economists Samuel Bowles and Wendy Carlin.
And, accordingly, facilitates the fight against climate change, which brings inconvenience for citizens and costs for business. After quarantine for them this is not news, people and companies better prepared for the hardships for the sake of a joint struggle with the deadly danger.
History knows similar examples of rapid change in society as a result of wars and crises, say American economists.
With the previous large-scale epidemics — SARS Sars boom Internet Commerce in China, as buyers for the quarantine period to become accustomed to the outlandish, to 2003 way to buy food. After the terrorist attacks in USA on 11 September 2001, the population willingly agreed to an unprecedented restriction of freedoms and the empowerment of security agencies.
And the Second world war changed the gender landscape of the labor market: the mobilization has opened for many women the road to the offices, their share among the highly skilled and managerial workers rose sharply. In the end, after the war, society did not return to the old ideas about women’s work, and since then moved to the issue of gender equality forward, albeit timidly.
On the same tectonic shifts calculated at this time, those who believe that the world is not efficient in fighting global warming.
they Have reason to celebrate: during the quarantine harmful emissions into the atmosphere was reduced to 2006 levels, people with��Ali less travel by cars and almost stopped flying on airplanes.
Now it will be easier to come to terms with reality, if she require the same of the victims, environmentalists believe. Not then was, reply the skeptics.
Air travel has suffered in this crisis in the first place. The country closed the borders, airlines sheathed two-thirds of the passenger fleet.
And if the last such blow — hijacking attacks on the US on 11 September 2001, civil aviation was recovering slightly more than a year, this time no one can make predictions because freight will not recover completely until the virus is defeated.
By the end of the year, according to the International air transport Association (IATA), passenger traffic will reach only 50-60% last year.
And then only if the government will support the industry. And it basically can count only national carriers that perturbs the budget airlines against already spoken publicly of the head of Ryanair and Wizz Air.
But that hasn’t stopped authorities in the US, they have provided support to the industry $ 25 billion, and in Europe the amount of state aid may exceed 30 billion euros in loans and contributions to capital.
neither one of the recipients of taxpayers ‘ money are not burdened with additional obligations to reduce emissions or any another way to contribute to the fight against global warming.
Before that will happen, promise officials. But later. Now the main task — to keep the aircraft afloat and save jobs. It turns out that the coronavirus was postponed ‘greening’ of air travel to better times.
the Other big issue of this crisis: it will give impetus to clean energy due to the redistribution of capital and priorities in the policy or be a life buoy for the oil and gas industry and will allow her to regain part of the lost positions due to falling prices for fossil hydrocarbons and the sensitivity of the authorities to the complaints of the oil companies a hard time.
Even before the epidemic of renewable energy restricted traditional, as prices fell and demand increased. To buy and store energy from the sun and wind are now cheap that promises to the demand for it. But this is not enough to displace conventional energy as demand in the world as a whole is growing, and for purification of the atmosphere is important not only to share its growth but also to replace the existing one.
investing in clean energy is now more attractive investments in oil and gas assets, estimated Bloomberg. So, at the exit from the crisis, it will be easier to raise equity capital. This happens for the first time in history.
Prior to the previous crisis shareholders vertically integrated oil and gas companies couldto expect 25-30% returns to equity, and even in depressive 2008-2009 it does not fall below 10%. However, the last few years, the profitability was lower and the coronavirus more and brought down the price of oil and gas, so the prospects of profitability of the funds invested in the company sector, is sad.
But alternative energy at the exit from the crisis will be actively involved in the fight for investors ‘ money and can easily compete with the traditional: according to calculations by Bloomberg, the return on equity of companies generating wind energy now accounts for 9-11%, solar 8%.
And despite the fact that electricity from renewable sources cheaper on the eyes, the yield is not falling, because the technology is also evolving, with the result that production, transportation and storage become cheaper. Which is not true of capital-intensive conventional energy.
Two-thirds of the world’s population live in areas where the increase in electricity demand it is cheaper to provide through the construction of solar and wind farms. These countries account for 70% of the world economy and 85% of power generation. To cover peak loads battery already profitable gas-fired power plants in countries still oriented towards the import of gas in Europe and China, for example.
Global warming in a strange way is helping to combat them: a rise in temperature of water in the oceans increases wind and precipitation delays with the land, which leads to a cheapening and increase in the production of solar and wind energy.
But even if coronaries created the preconditions for a decisive breakthrough in the war against greenhouse gases, it is simultaneously elevated and unexpected obstacle on the road to victory.
Because the atmosphere, abatement requires agreements between countries. The ban on public gatherings and travel here is very inappropriate.
When two hundred States (almost all countries) agreed to keep the global rise in average temperatures to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, scientists have warned that it is the only way to avoid climate catastrophe and keep life on Earth in the form in which we have observed so far.
Since then the situation has worsened, the planet is heating up twice as fast, and it’s time to put more ambitious goals, say environmentalists. They hoped to reach the authorities of all countries of the world and to consolidate the new, more ambitious goals of emission reductions this fall at the climate summit in Glasgow.
However, the meeting had to be cancelled, and reserved for him conference hall Scottish Events Campus — can be converted into a field hospital for the sick Covid-19.
Even personal meetings and vigorous diplomacy does not always bring results revealed the latest climate summit in Madrid. The UN Secretary General, the British government and other participants in that meeting called it empty and ineffectual.
And in Skype and Zuma to negotiate about the fate of the planet and sacrifice for the common good almost impossible.
the Paris agreement obliges countries by December 31, 2020 to submit an updated reduction plans for the next decade. The failure of the summit in Glasgow sure move those dates.
