Since the end of September, Ukrainian troops have been conducting a successful counter-offensive in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions. Tensions are mounting in the Kremlin and concerns are growing around the world over a Russian use of nuclear weapons, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has been threatening since the start of the war in Ukraine.
The British newspaper The Times, citing NATO sources, reported that Russia was preparing nuclear weapons tests in the Black Sea. A video has appeared online showing a Russian military train moving towards the Ukrainian border and allegedly linked to the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry, which is responsible for the country’s nuclear arsenal.
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck, takes the risk of Russian nuclear weapons use seriously. That military train and also the departure of the submarine K-329 “Belgorod” could be nuclear messages.
“Russia’s leadership is showing Ukraine and Western governments that Russia is capable, but possibly willing, to use nuclear weapons,” Mangott said.
“At the moment, this is primarily a deterrent. It should send a signal that Ukraine should not continue its offensive and that the West should no longer support Ukraine with arms.”
If these threats don’t stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Vladimir Putin could move on to the next stage. “As a radicalized ‘stop the offensive’ message, Russia could test a tactical nuclear weapon over the Black Sea or in Kamchatka.”
If an explosion over an uninhabited area also fails and Ukraine reconquers more areas, Russia could, according to Mangott, use a tactical nuclear weapon: “That won’t happen on the front line, but to the rear over inhabited, Ukrainian, urban areas.”
Military expert and former Bundeswehr colonel Ralph Thiele believes that if a Russian nuclear bomb over uninhabited terrain fails to have a deterrent effect, Moscow could attempt to attack political and economic targets in Ukraine. “It could be an explosion that sends out an electromagnetic pulse and destroys everything that’s electrically powered — cars, televisions, satellites, computers, electric power plants — within hundreds of square miles. That would be a variant.”
Most international experts agree that using nuclear weapons would have devastating consequences for Russia. “Even with a test that would actually violate the comprehensive test ban agreement ratified by Russia, there would be severe economic and financial sanctions,” explains Mangott.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had warned of “catastrophic consequences.” In an interview with CBS at the end of September, he said that senior US officials had made this clear to the Kremlin “directly, confidentially, at the highest level”.
According to Gerhard Mangott, the response of the USA and NATO is likely to be military. Former CIA Director David Petraeus said the US and its allies were ready to destroy the entire Russian army on Ukrainian territory and sink the Black Sea Fleet. Mangott believes that such a strike would be asymmetrical, i.e. with conventional weapons: “Putin is not only told how the West will react to the use of a nuclear bomb, but also that Russia will then be globally isolated and that China and India would also condemn such a step .”
So far, China has taken a neutral position in the Ukraine war. At the same time, many experts agree that Beijing could help prevent Putin from launching a nuclear strike. Ralph Thiele believes the West should do more to make China its strategic ally. “Putin is dependent on China. The world would have an opportunity here to bring about a ceasefire as a first step by involving China more closely.”
However, according to the expert, the West should not pressure China to join the sanctions against Russia. This would not be beneficial for Beijing. China is interested in ending the war in Ukraine, primarily for economic reasons. The country also does not want the war to develop into a nuclear war.
“Our politicians actually want to keep China out of Europe because they think it’s already difficult enough to deal with China in the future, both economically and geopolitically. I think we just have to swallow the smaller toad, namely the unpleasant, stronger presence of China here in Europe,” said Thiele. According to him, that would be a trump card that should now be drawn slowly.
According to Gerhard Mangott, whether the warnings from Washington will have a deterrent effect depends on the further course of the fighting in Ukraine. According to the expert, the attempt by the Ukrainian military to win back Crimea could become a “red line” for Vladimir Putin.
“I can’t imagine that he would watch Ukraine take back Crimea. This would immediately jeopardize his position and bring about his downfall. The big question is whether, in order to stave off defeat, Putin is cold-blooded and obsessed enough to go to extremes and use a nuclear weapon in such a situation,” Mangott said. “I’m afraid Putin is cold-blooded and possessed enough. But there is at least some hope that his order to use nuclear weapons will not be carried out by those who must implement it.”
However, there are currently no signs that the Russian leadership has decided to use nuclear weapons, stresses Gerhard Mangott. “We are not that far yet. Nor are we at the stage where Russia is in danger of losing this war catastrophically. But with every war defeat that Russia suffers on the battlefield, with every reconquest of Russian-held territories by the Ukrainian army, the likelihood in that direction may increase.”
Adaptation from the Russian: Markian Ostapchuk
Author: Marina Baranovska
Originally Posted by “Putin and the Nuclear Weapon: What Can Stop Him?” comes from Deutsche Welle.