it Turns out that oil is not lost. According to experts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), prices can grow to $150 per barrel. However, it will not happen immediately, but only after five years. Meanwhile, low demand due to the impact of the pandemic coronavirus, will not allow the “black gold” to set price records.
However, five years don’t have to wait: before the end of this year, experts say WSJ, oil prices may break the ceiling of $100. In other words, by December the price per barrel could increase 2.5 times the current level in July, and five years for “barrel” will give 4 times more than now. Recall that the world record for the price of oil Dating from the mid-2007 when it exceeded $130 per barrel.
What should happen in the near future to make the record PAL? The rising prices of raw materials will be caused by a serious fall of investments in the mining sector, analysts give the answer. BP and ExxonMobil have already warned that they would reduce their capital expenditure by 25-30%. As a result, world production risks decline by 5 million barrels per day. As a result, by 2030 will require investment of $625 billion to achieve a balance of supply and demand of raw materials on the market. However, companies will be able to collect even such impressive amounts of money, because the cost of a barrel, according to the WSJ, in five years will reach $150.
For Russia, such a scenario would be extremely beneficial: it is no secret that about half of Federal budget revenues depend on oil and gas revenues. When a three-digit price of a barrel might come back “fat times” the beginning “zero”: constantly growing salaries, pensions, reserves of the state, plus the budget was in surplus, not in deficit as it is now.
However, in the opinion of most Russian experts, no matter how tempting to believe in the optimistic forecasts of the American edition, oil possesses much more modest growth potential. Currently, the “barrel” is estimated at around $41-43, although in the beginning of April, prices fell below $20. “The world economy is entering a big transformation that involves the passage through a series of crises. Coronavirus has accelerated these processes. Hence, the demand for oil if and will grow the minimum rates. About the recovery of demand this year, however. So prices will remain low and gravitate towards average cost which is around $40 per barrel,” — said chief investment strategist “BCS” Maxim Shein.
If prices continue to hold at current levels, it will give Russia a head start in any future negotiations within OPEC+. This level of world prices of oil are quite satisfied with the Russian government, because the Federal budgetmay our country laid out in this the cost of “black fuel”. Therefore, Moscow has a chance to bargain with other members of the Alliance.
the Ministry of energy and the International energy Agency also forecast that the current level of demand and the slow recovery, until the end of 2020, oil prices will remain at $40-50. Given the depth of the fall of the world economy and the fact that her recovery will go very slowly and for a long time, such a price level can be maintained in the next year. After a record fall 30% in I and II quarters of this year, the demand for hydrocarbons recovered while only 10%. To achieve balance it is necessary that the market has had 20 million barrels more than at present. But for this you first need to restore in the same amount of rail, aviation, flights, tourist and transport traffic. “There is a suspicion that in the next 2-3 years convincing economic results in this area of our country do not get to boast of,” — said the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev.
According to him, to jump to around $100-150 a barrel can only be the case if the market there is a real catastrophic shortage of raw materials. However, at present the world market, rather, combats of “black gold” than suffers from a lack of energy. “The era of oil is over $100 over. It is doubtful that three-digit oil prices soon return to the market”, — concludes the expert.
