“The catalogue of possible burdens for investors in the coming quarters well filled,” says Christian Kahler. He has evaluated, as an Analyst of DZ Bank, the German stock market landscape in the Corona-crisis. He lists a bunch of possible triggers that could make this year the prices always decrease: cost savings in the company, layoffs, bankruptcies, liquidity constraints, investment cuts, turmoil in the case of funds, increased loan losses, cuts dividends and share repurchases, disappointing recovery programs, negative wealth effects, and the fear of a return of the Corona pandemic.
All would end the current between the high the German index of leading shares quickly. Since its low on may 18. In March, the Dax has gained about 22 per cent. He is currently even with more than 10,000 points. The DZ Bank estimates that it can go in this year again downhill.
company profits may increase by 50 percent
The lower threshold for a course slip, she sees 8,000 to 8,500 points. In this area, the value of the Dax corresponding to the book value of the 30 Dax-listed companies, so the sum of the inventory of the big companies is worth it. Indices slip extremely rare in these book value. Such an exception situation in the DZ Bank is currently not given. Learn from the Best
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Sure is, moreover, already now, that the Corona-pandemic economic crisis will lead to a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP), so a recession. The extent of this is not yet a serious rate. The OECD published last week a study, according to which the immediate decline could be up to 30 per cent in Germany. However, this applies only to the time, in public life, as it is currently restricted. The year as a whole, the decline in GDP of a few percentage points.
The DZ Bank dares to take a similar Outlook for the company finances. In their view, the profits of the Dax companies are likely to plummet this year by around 50 percent. That would be significantly more than the average of the previous recessions in Germany (35 percent), but significantly less than the break-in, eleven years ago, in the financial crisis (72 per cent). Individual groups could meet there, but harder. The “diver”, such as DZ Bank calls it, would make this year and up to 80 percent less profit than in the previous year.
This Dax companies, it meets the most
source: DZ Bank, According to current analyst estimates there are up to now four such “divers” in the Dax: BASF, Covestro, RWE and Lufthansa (see chart) experts in mean that the profits will decline this year to 70 percent or more compared to the previous year. Lufthansa would even slip into the loss zone. Add to this the Deutsche Bank, which is also expected to write without Corona-crisis in the red.
The view of the DZ Bank, according to which the wins are by an average of 50 percent compared to the year-on-year break, has, up to now, but not yet enforced. In the Mediterranean, analysts expect nine percent less profit. In the case of eleven companies expected to rise even. However, these Figures are obtained from estimates from the pre-crisis period, or the beginning and is likely to fall accordingly in the coming weeks. “Mr. Dax” Dirk Müller: How investors are now the Best of the Situation, FOCUS Online, “Mr. Dax” Dirk Müller: How investors are now the Best of the Situation
Dax reached until 2024 back to its pre-crisis level of
For investors, according to DZ Bank, the current Situation is an attractive opportunity to buy shares or to buy, if you have already. “from previous stock market cycles we know that according to the low point of a recession the shares the highest and most durable increase in market rates”, it is stated in the study. After the financial crisis of 2009, the rates rose until around the beginning of this year, almost continuously. It was one of the longest climbs of the Dax in its history.
happens To this after the Corona-crisis, however, is a little bit of patience needed. The DZ Bank sees the low point of the crisis between April and June achieved. In the worst case, it could go here, even in the short term under the above-described threshold value of 8000 points. After that, it will take according to the study, around four years, until the Dax reached its old record high of 13.789 points. Until 2022 or 2023, the companies would earn, therefore, again as much money as last in the record year of 2018. You make more of your money!
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This means the current Situation for investors
The DZ Bank also expects that the increase will not be in a straight line, but always of smaller setbacks will be accompanied. This is particularly important for investors, the more individual stocks than funds in the securities account have. You should now choose papers that offer a good long term perspective. In the process, liquidity plays a major role in how a group comes out of the current crisis.
investors who invest in funds, advises DZ Bank, now to buy, if its own reserves. “In a few years, the low stock prices that we have in the spring of 2020, seen, could, as a very good entry opportunities have shown. This opportunity should not be missed investors completely“, – stated in the study. If you want to follow this call, but note the Golden rule, only invest the money that you require. A buffer of three to four month’s net salary should you remain back.
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