As found “Kommersant”, the generating company in April is expected to reduce electricity generation at thermal power plants up to 25% for coronavirus and high-load hydroelectric plants. When the quarantine will be extended until July, revenue generating companies in the second quarter will fall by 30-40%, analysts estimate. However, the industry will help guaranteed payments for power from the wholesale market, which mainly generate revenue for the companies.Thermal generation continues to demonstrate the reduction of electricity production that began in the first quarter, said market participants. So, “Siberian generating company” (SGK, included in the SUEK Andrey Melnichenko) and Tatenergo “Kommersant” reported that they expect falling production in April in the region of 25% year-on-year. At “T Plus” estimate the reduction of electricity production at the 5% level. According to the analytical review of “VTB Capital”, in WGC-2, “Gazprom energoholding” (GEKH), according to preliminary data for the first ten days of the month, the decreased production was 25%, TGK-1 (included in GEKH) implies a fall of 19%, “inter RAO” confirms the reduction without specifying a specific value.The reasons for the fall — a decline in demand for electricity amid abnormally warm weather, the increase in the load of the hydroelectric plant of high water content and a decline in exports of electricity. Consumption since the introduction of the restrictive measures was reduced by approximately 3%, which led to the fall in the cost of electricity on the market for days forward (RSV, competitive trade of electricity).If the restrictions will be lifted in mid-may, the revenue generating companies in the second quarter could fall by 10-15%, follows from a review of “VTB Capital”. Analysts believe that the extension of the quarantine to the end of June, revenues will be reduced by 30-40%. According to estimates of Institute of natural monopolies research (IPEM), already in the first three hours of the week the TES revenue fell by 4 billion rubles year-on-year. In “Council of power producers” (includes large electricity generating companies) do not give forecasts, noting only that the total reduction of electricity consumption for the year will depend primarily on the duration of the restrictive measures.Drop impact on generating companies, but will have limited impact: decrease in income will not exceed 10-15%, says the analyst. “Companies, regardless of the level of consumption will receive a capacity payment to cover fixed costs and the variables will depend on the level of generation of electricity,” he said.Now the most in demand influenced by the weather and electricity generation of HPPs, it is because of this, many generation companies can be a strong drop in production, said Sergei Geramita from Raiffeisenbank. But the results may vary, he said: those companies that will be able to upload a new more efficient�� power (units built under contracts for the supply of power PDM) will feel much better than the other — from the point of view of cost and production.Pauline Smertin; Olga Kudrina, Kazan
