Coronavirus zeroed the real estate market. All the rules of the game disappeared. Developers ran for the subsidies to the state, which means they’re bankrupt. The next year people will stop buying the apartment. Some encyclopedias will be at the expense of those who decide to change the housing on a smaller area. The rich will go to the Islands. Such statements in the course of the online conference “How the pandemic will change the look for a comfortable accommodation?” was made by the former developer Sergei Polonsky.
“the Market is completely reshaped. Everything that was built before the pandemic, we assume — zero. And actually need to create a new space and new conditions, — said Polonsky. It is necessary to proceed from the fact that the immunity of people falling, will be a second wave of the epidemic.
There is speculation that this story drags on at least another two years. I think that out of the crisis we will be five years, because today the objective of the country’s GDP drops by 20-25%. People have no money to improve their living conditions. Anyone who creates a housing business class should expect that the price will be in the economy. Elite apartment — is generally incomprehensible substance, because after such a collapse, the rich people will live either on Islands, or on yachts”.
But other statements of the flamboyant former developer.
About fears in the big city. “live In Moscow 15 million people. In Europe there is no city with such density. So do not compare yourself of the epidemic to Europe. Need to compare themselves at least with new York. And, in fact, we see that new York took the unprecedented action of blocking and coped with the situation. So, of course, Moscow must “raskrutitsya” to reduce fears.
After the attack on new York’s twin towers on 9 September 2001 people a year did not buy the property because he was in fear. When you can’t see the future and do not understand how to live, it is impossible to predict anything. Therefore, the government’s attempts to encourage people to buy homes with cheap mortgages is not very nice. No matter what will be the value of money. The question is, what will be unemployment.
now We said, let’s at 6.5% everyone will issue the mortgage! You know, it would be like to agitate people to make microloans under 100% annual. Even if you make a bet of 0% will not help: people still have no money.”
About the prospects of the housing market. “I know what’s going on in Asia, in America — and nowhere good prospects for the near future developers have not. Business has long ceased to be high-margin (the margin, in simple terms, is the difference between the market price of the product and its cost).
Now the situation is even worse. Large companies are now all ran to the government for subsidies. It says that “in the moment��e” they are bankrupt. Yes, and do not need large companies that build a terrible house, without balcony, without air, for projects of the 1970-ies. How to build now? It is not clear. Any project designed for 3-5 years. And as you can tell, how it should be, if unclear demand at least?
There are five parameters that are impossible to predict even a year in advance: the ratio of the ruble against the dollar (jumps by 10% per year); the cost of money (absolutely unclear what it will be); the cost of production (today you sell the house in rubles, and tomorrow the price of cement jumped in twice, because the ruble has fallen to 120); sales price; sales volume”.
About antiviral arrangement of buildings. “Buildings that are now built, need to upgrade, otherwise they will fall in price from-for discrepancies to requirements of the bacteriological, chemical and mental safety. For ordinary homes to have a place on the lower floors for mini-offices. People squeezed their spending and to save money on food, not the extension. Some people will sell homes and move into apartments smaller area. Contactless opening of the door, call the Elevator to the desired floor without touching the buttons — must be absolutely accurate. Perhaps these changes will make in the building regulations. Of course, you need a standalone air handling system. In the houses of economy class with the ventilation is really bad. Disinfecting chemicals are very bad for health. There should be separate elevators for deliveries, especially in high rise buildings. Dont want you in the apartment came dinner or a bottle of lemonade.”
About work and unemployment. “it is Not clear how people will be emotional point of view back to large offices. In the same Moscow city a huge crowd of people — the threshold density is exceeded two times of the planned. The desired Autonomous system, where in case of an epidemic people will be able to be inside the closed contour, given the fact that they have a certificate of absence of virus. The business is in great demand in the southern city. Sochi business requirements does not meet — Sochi resort city. Creative people find it difficult to work on udalenke, they need offline. Such communities as, in particular, Silicon valley, should be in large quantity.
Mankind will go on 4-day working week. This is not my opinion, it is the opinion of many experts. Otherwise the problem of unemployment in the future will not be solved. Will be “digitized” 47% of occupations. Analysts have predicted that it will happen in 2027, but we see that it will happen much faster. People need free time to do something with, otherwise we will see a huge amount of divorce and conflicts”.
