Is China launching a war of aggression against Taiwan? Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the US House of Representatives, now wants to pay a visit to the country. Why the situation in Taiwan is so tense at the moment – and what role the 82-year-old’s visit plays.
Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, arrived in Malaysia on Tuesday. Among other things, she wants to meet Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yakoob later in the day.
But the focus is less on their stay there. Much more interesting is what happens after that. Will the politician continue to travel to Taiwan despite warnings from China? Beijing had threatened the USA with consequences in this case.
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Democratic Taiwan is not on Pelosi’s official itinerary, which includes Singapore and Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. But Beijing fears that Pelosi, the third highest-ranking US politician after President and Vice President, could ignore the Chinese warnings and make a stopover there.
It would be a move that could add fuel to a smoldering conflict and even escalate it. But how exactly did the tense situation in Taiwan come about – and what happens in the event of war? The most important questions and answers.
From Beijing’s point of view, Taiwan is part of China, even if the country was governed independently before the People’s Republic was founded in 1949. It has wanted to “unite” the island state with the mainland for many years; under President Xi Jinping, however, the whole thing has taken on a new dynamic.
“The Communist Party’s claim to sole representation has become so totalitarian that Xi has rejected a peaceful process of rapprochement and threatened to annex and occupy democratic Taiwan,” Alexander Görlach told FOCUS Online.
Görlach is an honorary professor at the Institute for Ethics and Theology at the University of Lüneburg and has worked for several years as a guest researcher in Asia, including in the Taiwanese capital of Taipei.
Because Beijing believes there is only one China, it is also trying to isolate Taiwan internationally. Other countries are said to end their diplomatic relations with the island nation. Those who do not comply with the guidelines must expect consequences. An example: In 2021, China imposed import bans on Lithuania. The EU member had just opened a diplomatic mission in Taipei.
Only 13 states – including Honduras and Guatemala – as well as the Holy See of Vatican City maintain official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, all others do not recognize the island state as an independent country. This is mainly due to the so-called “One China Principle”.
After that, Beijing is the only legitimate representative of China. Under Chinese pressure, Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations and international organizations. Anyone who wants to maintain bilateral relations with Beijing must recognize the “one China principle”.
Expert Görlach sees this critically. “The world community has made itself comfortable with the previous arrangement, according to which both former civil war parties are each allowed to do their own thing and nothing changes in the state of limbo on the Taiwan question,” he says.
Red Alert: How China’s aggressive foreign policy in the Pacific is leading to a global war
The US has a special relationship with Taiwan. Even if they have no official diplomatic relationship with the island nation, they are committed to Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. So far, this has mainly meant arms deliveries.
Beijing sees visits to Taiwan by foreign politicians as a provocation – particularly evident when it comes to high-ranking US diplomats like Nancy Pelosi. “Those who play with fire will perish,” Xi reportedly told US President Joe Biden.
Görlach is convinced: “Xi Jinping needs a pretext for military escalation.” The head of government has also spoken so often about a possible escalation of the conflict because he “wants to distract from the actual problems into which he has maneuvered his country”. .
“One mustn’t forget that Xi is currently responsible for the biggest disaster in the Chinese economy since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms,” says the Asia expert.
The situation in and around Taiwan is getting worse and worse. China’s People’s Liberation Army recently increased the threat with maneuvers, target practice, military aircraft and warships. In response, Taiwan’s military increased its operational readiness on Tuesday, the CNA news agency reported.
Then there are the threatening gestures of the Chinese President. Because of Pelosi’s possible trip to Taiwan, which is obviously a thorn in his side.
“All sorts of scenarios were discussed in publications close to the party, including having the American military plane in which Ms. Pelosi is sitting intercepted and escorted by Chinese fighter jets,” says Görlach. “It has also been fantasized about the possibility of an escalation at sea, in the Taiwan Strait, which is vital to world trade.”
He makes it clear elsewhere how precarious the situation is. “If Pelosi does not travel, it will destabilize democracy worldwide, yielding to the dictators of our time. If China doesn’t respond militarily, Xi Jinping will lose face,” says Görlach.
For the Asia expert, one thing is clear: the reactions of the EU and Germany to a possible war of aggression against Taiwan should be based on those against Vladimir Putin. “Maximum isolation of the People’s Republic, sanctions, arms deliveries to Taiwan,” he explains.
“Taipei’s military alliance with Manila, Seoul, Tokyo and Canberra must also be discussed.” After all, China is not only at odds with Taiwan at the moment. With a total of 17 nations, the Middle Kingdom is at odds over territory and borders. Bhutan, Laos, Mongolia and India are among them.
“The pattern is clear: Xi is out for imperialist expansion of power, colonial subjugation of the people in the conquered areas, land and sea conquests,” said Görlach. The world community must react decisively because “it would not end in Taiwan”.
Should China really start a war against Taiwan, Germany would also be affected. In an interview with the “Rheinische Post”, FDP parliamentary group leader Alexander Graf Lambsdorff emphasized that Taiwan accounts for a third of global semiconductor production.
“In our country, almost all supply chains in industry would be affected, and many technical products could no longer be manufactured. From the washing machine to the airplane,” said the politician. “It is in our own interest that there is no parallel conflict between Russia and Ukraine and between China and Taiwan.”
Semiconductors can be found almost everywhere today, for example in smartphones, computers, cars or medical devices. A shortage had led to price increases and supply chain problems in many industries during the corona pandemic. Large manufacturing capacities are located in Taiwan in particular.
