made In Russia 1990s to consider the dashing bandit, beggars continue to increase in the negative. And what will be the 2020-s? One thing is clear: they have in common exactly is already there: now and then it all starts with a massive economic crisis. The crises are different, but that is another long and require radical solutions. There will be enough differences in crises in order to 2020-s are lighter?
Today, the exigencies of the situation — the continuing attack of the coronavirus with a tragic loss, restrictions, costs — obscures the future. Not before, understand that bulk! But still, what’s ahead, where the light in the tunnel?
Us from all sides say will change everything. Possible. Medical mask for a long time included in the dress code, and, hence, the fashion designer have work to do. But limit ourselves to the economy. For a start we will not seek to look beyond the horizon.
What will happen with the Russian economy in 2020? Until two clear starting point: nothing good, unfortunately, is not waiting for the second quarter will be a stunning failure, and then much will depend on how quickly the outbreak of the global economic crisis will be overcome in other countries, particularly in those that are purchasing Russian energy and other raw materials.
Now let’s give the word to those in the current rapidly changing environment essays on the prediction. Just note that while among these brave men lookout state government — Ministry of economic development no. There is a forecast plan to submit by the end of may. On the one hand, if you hurry, you can make the foam for the drink itself; but on the other hand, say, international financial institutions, your traditional release schedule of the various forecasts do not change, the Central Bank its forecast is also published, so that, holding the pause and, of course, using the established predictions as hints of economic development raises expectations from their offspring. If the quality of the forecast, these expectations are not justified, the Minister Maxim Reshetnikov risks to gain an extraordinary portion of penalty points, which he had enough.
But we are interested in the kitchen not so much predictions as they are. They are different masters made with different formulas, so, strictly speaking, not at all comparable, but in the main — course.
the Latest forecast from the EBRD. The Bank at any “weather” is preparing a forecast twice a year. The latest version of expected more pessimistic. If in previous toviruses option in 2020 expected growth of the Russian economy (1.7% in not yet updated forecast of economic development are not at all 1,9%), the EBRD now expects a fall of 4.5%. All in addition to General for the global economy in the fashion industry is to blame for the sharp drop in oil prices, which, however, is also inseparable from economic the effects of coronavirus.
the EBRD parade of forecasts of Russia’s GDP in 2020 were built in the following line from optimists to pessimists. All predict a decline in the Russian economy (in case of representation of different projections of one author we choose the option that the author himself recognizes basic).
“Renaissance Capital” — minus 0.8 percent, the world Bank and alpha Bank minus 1%, the consensus forecast development Centre HSE — minus 2%, the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF) or minus 2.4%, the economic research Institute (ifo), Munich or minus 3.4 percent, McKinsey, VEB — minus 3.8%, ACRA, Deutsche Bank — minus of 4.0–4.5%, the Institute of international Finance (IIF), a Washington — minus 5.1 percent, the IMF — minus 5.5%Bank of America — minus 5.6 percent, Oxford Economics — minus 6.3 percent.
the List goes on. It is worth noting some sort of time loop in the scoring: at the start, in March and early April, the assessment was more optimistic every April, they usually declined, but at the end of April — beginning of may again there has been warming. As an illustration, we can cite the evolution of the position of the head of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin: at the beginning of April he believed that the Russian economy in 2020 will decrease by 5%, 25 APR it worsened its forecast to minus 8%, believing that this crisis is devastating not give the crisis in 2009, in may, at least for now, Kudrin has refrained from forecasts. There is another interesting feature: if the first predictions of a fall in the Russian economy exceeded the decline in Europe and in the world on average, but now the picture is changing, ifo Munich, for example, believes that the economic decline in the USA (minus 4.6%), Germany (5%) and Eurozone (minus 5.3 percent) exceeds the marked reduction of Russia’s GDP.
the Picture is however too bright. Then refer to the forecast of the Central Bank, in the absence of government it is possible to consider the main official, he published in the second half of April.
In 2020, the Central Bank expects the economy falling by 4-6%. If in former times the Russian economy exports dragged up, now all on the contrary, the reduction in exports was the main contributor to the fall in GDP. The balance of payments, respectively, will be in short supply in 2020 and 2021, the surplus will come back in 2022-m. Scarce will the Federal budget in 2020, the Bank estimates it as 6% of GDP. The average price of a barrel of oil in 2020, according to the forecast, will amount to $27 in 2020 and will rise to $35 in 2021 and $45 in 2022.
the forecast of the Central Bank there are oddities. Interestingly, they revealed in the comments of Elvira Nabiullina. The first strangeness in the following words of the Chairman of the Central Bank: “the Recession we really can avoid, if the third quarter will be better than the second. And this is our base-case forecast”. The point is that the brunt of the economy, of course, will experience in the second quarter, when she falls, according to the Central Bank by 8%. Under recession refers to the fall of the economy for at least two quarters. The Central Bank’s forecast drop is one quarter, but that doesn’t negate the fact that 2020 is a crisis. Here it is: there is a crisis, and no recession.
the Second oddity in another comments Nabiullina. If we have just seen that the economic decline she took only one quarter, how about the fact that on may 8 a number of media quotes her words about the “era of negative growth”, which is entering the Russian economy? Something one- or a quarter, or “epoch”, although the Minister may have been misquoted.
it’s Time to return to the metaphor of the 2020s to the 1990s. According to most forecasts, the current crisis given year (CB and does believe that the recovery will begin in the third quarter). If so, the comparison disappears. But don’t hurry.
the Key to the dynamics of the Russian economy, alas, has not changed is the level of oil prices. Here again forecasts is enormous, but you should pay attention to the latest report of the International energy Agency (IEA) standing alone. The current crisis brings radical changes in the energy market. During the crisis, stable performance only for alternative sources of energy, and by the end of 2020, in spite of everything, is expected to increase alternative energy by 5%. The share of alternative, renewable and nuclear energy in 2020 will reach a historic high of 40%. Demand for natural gas will decrease by 5% (the maximum reduction for the entire history), of coal — by 8% and oil demand by 9%.
to Summarize it this way: if Elvira did not say about the coming “era of negative growth” of the Russian economy, such prospect is quite real, because in an era of low oil prices, we have already entered. The market, at least, will not forget the 20th of April with a negative oil prices. A graph of oil prices remains a cardiogram of the Russian economy and public life in General.
the 1990s is closer than you think.
