In 2007, China’s share in Russia’s foreign trade turnover was only 7.3%. The first cast was the EU (51%) as a centre of technological modernization of Russia. The core of the modernization – Germany. Its share in Russia’s foreign trade was close to 10%. For us it is a familiar design. All leaps in technology all accelerated the modernization of Russia had still its origin in the West as a workshop. The Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium, UK. Even the modernization of the 1930-ies was launched with a massive supply of plants and equipment from USA and Germany. And then we were able to gain technological autonomy, don’t forget to follow the Western samples and occasionally play them.
Today there’s a new reality – the “Eastern” modernization. Or “sinification” of the Russian economy. Everyone can buy in China, “if anything, take it” – is firmly rooted in our thinking, especially under sanctions. China’s share in Russia’s foreign trade turnover reached 17.3% in the first quarter of 2020, growing all the time. EU – 41,3%, Germany – 7,6%, the proportion shrinks (FCS). China and the EU relations have the same structure. “There” from Russia – the most raw, and to us technology, equipment, components, valuable sources, and consumer goods.
And if you go into detail? China’s share of Russian imports of electrical machinery and equipment in the first quarter of 2020, 47%, mechanical devices and equipment – 29% tools – 34%, measuring, checking, optical, medical instruments and apparatus – 18%, equipment for Railways and tramways – 26% (FCS). 20% of imports of excavators in Russia, more than 30% of the import lathes, 25% of Russian imports of electronic components (industry expertise). The scale is impressive. From China – 53% of the Russian imports of footwear, 73% of toys and sports equipment, 69% of headwear, 39% furniture, 25% knit, 33% clothing (except hosiery), 76% of umbrellas, etc (FCS). All of this – half-empty niches in our economy. If in 2019 the whole of Russia produced 20 thousand pieces of umbrellas “rain and sun”, you have to save imports. And most of all in the East.
There are other dimensions – share of products from China in the domestic market of Russia. Here is what industry expertise (2018-2020). Smartphones “out there” – more than 45% of the market, computers – no less than 20%, bulldozers – 40%, wheel tractor – 14-15%, buses – 10%, passenger cars – about 3%, bicycles – approximately 50% (plus Assembly), 55% of the market of shoes and at least 30% of women’s clothing. Sources for medicines produced in Russia – up to 80% from China and India.
you Can continue to measure, but the problem is the same as that in the group of developed countries is the extremely high concentration of production in Asia, especially in China. China is the largest trading partner not only in Russia. For the EU this country is N 1 N 3 import and export. China – 1 N in the foreign trade of the United States, Japan, Korea, indAI, Australia, Brazil etc. For Kazakhstan N 2 after Russia. ‘ve all seen how in the midst of a pandemic, shrinking the supply of components from China led to a drop in production in major Western companies.
the Answer to all of this – the attempt to recover some production from Asia to the US and the EU, the so-called “rebalancing” of the global economy. Do we need it? Yes, of course! Continued dependence on import of technologies, equipment, components, source code reaches 70-90%. A month in Russia produced a total of 290-300 cutting machines, 100-150 excavators, bulldozers 30-50 (2020). For 2019, per capita, from small to large, released computer hardware less than $ 4. 0.75 pair of shoes for every person who lives in Russia (Rosstat). Is it worthy of a great economy? Russia as master of all trades – why not? We need it to survive in the global competition.
China as the new center of modernization in Russia, instead of West, causing issues. What? This technology from “first hand” as before, or from the “second” and “third”? Originals or copies? Copy worse than the original? And the quality? In Russia on average the quality of technology and equipment from China lower than EU? Or not? From China is so cheap and cheerful? Or more huts, imitations, no customer service, without proper safeguards? To the Russian procurement of the same requirements in China quality like to the West? Questions – one thousand, opinions ten thousand, but the overall picture – no.
We will be faced with the spontaneous process of penetration of our great neighbor to the ownership of land, infrastructure, housing and production. China town will be not only in Moscow. Fraternity – Yes, friendship – indeed, partnership economies, of course. But where in all this is our place, if you do not think of Russia as the only supplier of raw materials, reservoir spaces and clean water? Where is the place of people in 146 million people, worthy to be “the workshop of the world” for their talents? This question will still have to answer.
