Over the past week funds of developed countries lost about $12 billion of investment funds emerging markets lost almost $4.5 billion of International investors come from regained its value of assets in anticipation of a global recession. Demonstrate enviable stability of the Russian funds, which support positive dynamics of oil prices and future dividend payments.International investors have intensified the flight from equities, according to data Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR). According to “Kommersant”, based on data from Bank of America (account EPFR), for the week ended 6 may, customers of all equity funds took $16.3 billion This result is 2.5 times more compared to a week ago and the highest since the end of March. The main outflow of funds occurred in funds in developed countries. According to EPFR, it exceeded $11.7 billion, which is 3.5 times more compared to a week ago. The most active investors withdrew money from us funds, according to EPFR, the funds from the US took about $9.3 billion, almost six times more than the previous week. Outflows from European funds slowed from $2.7 billion to $1.8 billion In less than two months thanks to massive financial support from the Central banks of the leading countries stock indices regained a significant portion of their losses. Thus, the index S&P 500 played 60% of the March fall, and the MSCI EM over 40%. As the Director of analytical Department GK “Region” Valery Weisberg, global equity markets reached the targets of the corrective movement and now investors lock in profits.In particular, the US unemployment rate in April rose to a record 14.7 per cent, that is 20.5 million people lost their jobs in the month. According to Deputy General Director Ravil UK TFG Osipova, after a quick rebound, many investment houses have made statements about what the stock market is in the biggest divergence with the forecast levels of profit and its multiples appear unreasonably high. “The growth in terms of quantity, but the quality of growth is low,” said Mr. Yusipov.The prospects of lower demand from the economies in developed markets lead to the withdrawal of investors and the markets of developing countries. According to EPFR, for the reporting week funds whose investment policies are focused on emerging markets, lost almost $4.5 billion from $3.4 billion a week earlier. The largest outflow of funds in the BRIC countries fell to the funds of China ($1.5 billion) and Brazil ($328 million).The interest analysts attributed the recovery in oil prices. According to Reuters, the quotations of the nearest futures on Brent crude for a week are held at $30 per barrel. The price of Russian Urals oil holds near $25 per barrel. In addition, investors expect the dividend payout for the year by Russian issuers. “The Russian market is pretty well survived the April drop in oil prices, not least due to the expected high payout of dividends for the year 2019 and the activity of local investors. Forecasts for profits the largest issuers of although assume considerable decrease, but remain positive, which allows to count on dividends following the results of 2020 in contrast to many foreign companies”,— says Valery Weisberg.Further development of the situation on the market will be determined by the generosity of the leading financial regulators. In particular, market participants do not exclude the possibility that the U.S. Federal reserve following the example of the ECB for the first time in history lowered its key rate below zero by December of this year. This is evidenced by the futures rate on Federal funds. “Cash the wall from the world’s regulators are able to give confidence to investors. Russian stocks remain attractive, with the price of oil retreated from the lows, and of the securities as a result of weakening of the ruble look cheap,”— said Ravil Yusipov. However, according to him, while “the current inflow to the Russian funds seems more niche than the long-term trend”.Vitaly Gaydayev
