it would Seem that after 20 April, negative oil prices first WTI and then Brent Urals, the main Russian export market of the product does not be surprised. There it was. No, of course, the record of the April 20, remain on the podium, but the continuation has followed. There is something to admire.
the First direct consequence of the market collapse of April 20, proved the conspiracy. Bloomberg wrote that the Commission on trade commodity futures (СFTC), the United States launched an investigation into the incident on the market. He was joined by the British Management on financial regulation and supervision (FSA). While there is no conspiracy: what are commissions along with offices, as not to understand unprecedented in the history of the fall in oil prices deep into negative territory? The conspiracy theory starts on. Sources Bloomberg reported that investigators are looking for, in particular, the “Russian trace”.
similar turns we have become accustomed. As from the screens of Russian TV, any negativity associated with the machinations of Washington and overseas “bad guys” are always ready to test for knowledge of the Russian language. Sadly, of course, but hybrid war is a hybrid war. Though the statement that the collapse of oil prices that are at an unacceptably low for the Russian budget level, may be interested in the official Russian person, it seems absurd.
While the investigation has just started, and its loud beginning does not portend an equally sensational results. Meanwhile, the events on 20 April we received a new statistical light. The Russian official news Agency reported that oil production in Russia is growing. Including after collapse on 20 April. There are specific figures. Until mid-April production was at 1,537 million tonnes, from 17 April, the production rose by 0.8%. Production growth increased with each day: thus, on 22 April compared with the previous day’s growth was 0.6%, and 23 April came to 1,557 million tons.
From the point of view of economic efficiency growth of production at the prices fallen disastrously counterproductive. It is obvious that in these conditions it is more profitable to leave the oil under the ground. Production growth remains to explain the technical features (if any) prepare for her upcoming curtailment in accordance with the new version of the agreement OPEC+.
appropriate Here, a short retrospective. Before March break, the agreement OPEC+ operated since November 30, 2016. Its essence is limitation of oil production to at least partially restore the price target from a height of $107,75 per barrel (average price for January–August 2014) was shot down actively intervene in the market situation getters shale oil from the United States. In 2015 the price has fallen by a third.
In General, the policy of OPEC+ is justified. But what happened to the oil production of Russia in 2016? In 2017 it dropped, but by only 0.1%, in 2018 there was an increase in production is quite significant at 1.6%. In 2019, the growth continued and amounted to 0.8%. No reduction, on the contrary, for the 2017-2019 years, oil production in Russia increased by 2.3%. But no loud accusations from colleagues on OPEC+ Russia not heard. The key to this “smile of the Cheshire cat” simple enough. By the time the countdown of the fall of Russia was able to accelerate the prey to the maximum and in annual terms it is legally increased without violating formal agreements.
Honor and praise to Russian oil! But not all cat carnival. When in March 2020 Saudi Arabia has offered to reduce oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day, Russian oil (Russia had to reduce its production by 0.3 million barrels), faced with the threat this time is real production cuts, strongly balked. They did not stop the offensive of the coronavirus, they do not have to think about the future consequences of the suspension of the global economy and decline of demand for oil.
have to pay For everything. And, alas, not only those who admit to absolutely disastrous error. The agreement OPEC+ with difficulty and with the mediation of the American President was able to recover. 1 may take effect much greater compared to the March proposals, the Saudis limit the extraction of oil that still might not be enough. Prices, especially after 20 April are not “on the bottom of the well”. Why suffer the entire Russian economy and especially the Federal budget.
But oil production is growing.
