New York joined an increasing number of states that are reducing cash bail for criminal defendants two years ago. Since then, critics of reforms have warned that it could lead to more criminals being freed.

New York City’s fiscal watchdog has released a new report that says the predicted wave of recidivism is not happening.

While more people are being released from jail to await trial, the percentage of those who are re-arrested for new offences has remained almost unchanged since reforms were implemented according the analysis by Brad Lander, City Comptroller. It is currently at 4% in most months.

Only a fraction of people who were released while they waited for trial, less than 1%, were re-arrested again for violent felonies. This was both before and after reforms.

New York officials are considering removing bail reforms from the report, as they attempt to reduce the inequity that poor people are being held without bail while those accused of similar crimes go free.

Lander, a Democrat said that “we believe it’s important for policy making to follow facts rather than fear.” “We wanted to look at the data about bail trends and understand how it is actually happening. “The conversation about bail reform has become a divorce from the data.”

After a half-dozen other states, including New Jersey, Nebraska, which passed laws creating a presumption for release and nonmonetary bail, New York was one of the first to abolish bail and detention in nonviolent crimes.

Before New York’s reforms went into effect in January 2020, police leaders, law enforcement unions, and politicians began to criticize them.

New York abolished bail for many felonies, and instead required appearance tickets.

These changes were made months before the coronavirus pandemic, which led to widespread shutting downs and in some cases an increase in shootings. Recent headline-grabbing violent crimes in New York City has given momentum to bail reform opponents.

In recent days, Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration circulated a draft plan, which would allow more crimes to be detained and give judges greater latitude when setting bail.

According to the New York Post, the plan calls for judges to consider criminal history and firearm use when setting bail. It also allows for certain gun crimes, attacks on subway workers, and police to arrest repeat offenders who are guilty of low-level crimes that would otherwise merit an appearance ticket.

New York is unique among states because it requires judges to determine whether to hold a criminal suspect based on their likelihood of returning to court if they are released. In other states, judges can consider whether someone might pose a threat to the public.

Advocates for criminal justice welcomed bail reform because it brought overdue fairness and equity to a two-tiered system in which people accused of low-level offenses, such as KaliefBrowder (16), who was accused of robbing an 18-year-old man of a bag, languished behind bars , unable to pay small bail while wealthy defendants were able secure their release.

Browder spent three consecutive years in New York City’s Rikers Island jail Complex, including almost two years in Solitary Confinement before the charges were dropped. Later, he committed suicide.

Washington, D.C., was the first to abolish cash bail in 1992. Maine passed similar legislation for violations and nonviolent misdemeanors last year. In January 2023, Illinois passed a law that eliminated cash bail and established strict rules for detention.

California’s 2018 law that eliminated cash bail was stopped from going into effect by a 2020 referendum supported by the bail bond industry. Cash bail is still in effect in California, the most populous state in the country. Utah passed reforms to lessen the dependence on cash bail in October 2020, but they were repealed months later by some legislators and sheriffs.

New York already modified its bail reform once. The list of crimes that are eligible for pretrial arrest was expanded by lawmakers in April 2020 to include certain hate crimes, criminal possession on school grounds of a weapon, money laundering, and criminally negligent murder.

Former New York City Police Captain Eric Adams has called for reforms to bail reform . stated that New York is the only state where judges can’t weigh criminal history of defendants when setting bail.

Marie Ndiaye of the Legal Aid Society’s Decarceration Project stated that a “dangerousness” provision would have adisproportionate impact on people of color and lead to more cramped jails.

Ndiaye stated that bail reform was widely successful and allowed clients to remain in their communities with families, with no measurable impact upon public safety. “The data about bail reform speak for themselves: The overwhelming majority of New Yorkers who are released on pretrial release don’t commit any new crimes or return to court for future appearances.”

Based on data from both the city and the non-profit New York City Criminal Justice Agency (NYC Criminal Justice Agency), the analysis by the city comptroller found that the city’s re-arrest rate has not changed much since reforms.

On any given month in 2021, there were approximately 45,400 people on pretrial release in New York City. According to agency data, just under 1,900 of those were re-arrested. This is about 4%.

An average of 53,300 people were released from pretrial detention each month in 2019, which is about 4%. An average of just 2.300 people were re-arrested each month, which is 4.3%.

People are being held without bail less often since reforms. New York City judges set bail in 24,657 cases in 2019. Judges will set bail in 14,545 cases by 2021

Lander stated that this has not helped to ease the strain on the city’s crisis-plagued prisons.

Rikers Island was the scene of two deaths on last week’s back-to-back days. The incarcerated population has now risen to over 5,600, after it fell below 3,900 inmates in the early stages of the pandemic .

Lander stated that “the facts of this report prove that bail reforms are not responsible for an increased crime rate and that it is still driving people to Rikers because they are poor.” We should look elsewhere for public policy solutions and investments that will keep all communities safe.