Who knows what awaits us after the end of the epidemic?
To end one. One thing is clear: the economic crisis is inevitable. But what will it be, who hit what consequences will result? We might see a resurgence of federalism – after all, the President charged the heads of regions responsible for fighting the epidemic on their assigned territories?
isolated themselves, as the majority of citizens, economists, sociologists and political scientists have been analyzing the situation and build a model of its development.
– is it Possible now to determine the scope and the main features of this crisis ?
– the Main directions of its development more or less clear. The key thing to keep in mind – it is not like previous crises, because the first effort in the sector of market services. Recently appeared the April data of the savings Bank (source – Cerdanya), fell as sales of many types of market services. There are those where everything collapsed to a level of 4-5% from the same period last year. It is almost death.
– And where we have virtually die?
– travel Agencies – remained 3% from pre-crisis levels, the trade of jewelry – 3% of what is sold, tickets – 3%, clothing, footwear, accessories – 6%, beauty salons and massage – 5%, hotels – 15%. If you take the entertainment – only 15% of what it was; bars, cafes and restaurants that not all regions are fully closed to 25%. Exceptions we all know: the case of telecommunications, where all about the same level, digital products (plus 17%), grocery stores plus 10% to pre-crisis levels, and wine shops – plus 30%… Everything about the country is that clear now?
This is a crisis that is not the budget, and we pay. And he touched not primarily factories and large enterprises, because in addition to Telecom and commercial networking services provides small and medium businesses, entrepreneurs, self-employed. For him and he has – for small businesses and individuals, who have no airbags, and the state of their poor vision.
it is Possible to calculate risks, that is those who go under the threat of unemployment. If you take the regional data for only three types of services – non-food trade, hotels and catering, and real estate at me it turns out that under risk of job loss in the country of about 11 million people. My colleagues, those who still believed and transport, came under 13-15 million.
– What areas are particularly vulnerable from this point of view?
Services are concentrated in the largest cities, where were they the biggest effective demand: Moscow Mosoblasti, Peter, all cities and major regional centres. So if you take the layout of the regions in Moscow at risk over 1.5 million people in the Moscow region and St. Petersburg – under 600 thousand people in the Krasnodar region – more than 400 thousand in the Sverdlovsk and Rostov regions – about 300 thousand, in the Tyumen region, Tatarstan Republic, Nizhny Novgorod, Chelyabinsk, Samara areas – 250 thousand approximately, in the Novosibirsk region – about 200 thousand.
From all these only one truly rich region, which has a lot of money – Moscow, all other budget expenditures per capita are not much different, except that in St. Petersburg a little more. And this means one thing: the subjects of the Russian Federation, except Moscow, of money to support these businesses simply do not, therefore, support measures need to go with the Federal level.
But we have already agreed on the allocation of subjects of the Russian Federation from the Federal budget of 200 billion roubles.
– All expenses of consolidated budgets of regions for the past year – about 13 trillion.rubles. The volume of transfers from the Federal budget in the regional last year to 2.6 trillion.rubles. And what in comparison with these figures 200 billion? But regional budgets are expected to shrink revenues from the tax to incomes of physical persons (NDFL) – the number of taxpayers, especially in the largest cities will be reduced… the tax on the profit fall may not be as strong as in the crisis of 2009, because the main payers of this tax – the large industrial enterprises and banks, not hair salons.
But vmenenku and simplified taxation (specific tax regimes used by small business – “MK”) and patents have nothing to expect but a 4% income of consolidated budgets of regions. Sometimes their share reaches 7% in the South, in Krasnodar Krai, for example, because there are so many small business in recreational sphere: what will happen with summer vacation this year – is unclear, and because they live the whole year on what they earn over the summer.
it Turns out that the crisis this time is more affected regions with a strong economy and the weak ones will remain, so to speak, with their own?
I wouldn’t say that. The regions with the largest cities is also different. Novosibirsk region on its economy and income – the middle class, but there are many small and medium businesses. And the Krasnodar region – Tyumen oblast, but there is also a lot of small and medium business. Once again: this crisis has major cities and regional capitals where there are services. We get a country that had rolled away for 10 years in the competitive and rapidly modernizing economy and its rapid recovery should not count. By the end of 2019, the population’s income in real terms was 7% lower than in 2014. This year the most “gentle” predictions – the falling incomes in real terms by 3%, but most are predicting minus 7%. The solvency compressed – so even when the quarantine will be lifted, people will be significantly less money for services. The buckwheat, then you don’t save, right? And if the fridge is broken – buy a new one, but services are very flexible to compression of income. If we recall that this is the most popular segment of the economy… Of the 72 million working Russians, only 32 are employed in large and medium-sized businesses. According to the calculations of colleagues Gimpel’son (Vladimir, Director of the Centre for labour market studies higher school of Economics – “MK”.) approximately 25 million people work in trade, other services and construction, and it is largely small business, entrepreneurs, self-employed and informal.
What is the aid from the Federal center to the regions is needed now, first of all?
– we must first dramatically expand access to unemployment benefits. These benefits – Federal authority, and for their payment in large volumes should go subvention regions. How quickly you pull, how many regions will get? Silence. We don’t know anything.
While the machine works badly and slowly. Before the crisis, unemployment in the entire country received less than 600 thousand people. And the demand will obviously increase significantly. Here much depends, first, on the administration of payments: will break if you are in the site to check in online will you additional documents… even Though all the screaming about lightweight procedure for three months, so that people lasted, employment services to this not prisposoblenny. But if the machine will work better – more people go to register.
part of the employers from small and medium businesses try to retain employees in anticipation of the promised compensation of wages from the Federal budget in the amount of the minimum wage, but the money will only be distributed in mid-may. Nobody knows what the decision will make people want to quit and run for aid, or to sit a month on a small reserve on part-time employment, just to keep a job.
And it is unclear what will happen to self-employed, and we in fact in the informal economy 15 million. We are all very cautious in forecasts, because we understand how big the uncertainty. What is clear is that in the village this year will plant potatoes as undermined, because there came hard times.
– As in 90-e years, who increasingly realise that?
– No, that’s still another story… With the public sector, unlike the 90s, everything will be more or less normal, with workers of state – owned companies, too, although the Federal budget will be very big problems in connection with falling oil prices. State employees, employees of state-owned companies and retirees – now is three of the most protected groups of the population, in terms of income.
– Means the employees of large private enterprises – not in a flood zone?
– some decline in employment there will be, but it is absolutely not comparable with 2009, when risk went from the wholeindustry and are not comparable with the risks of the market services sector. Some compression can be on a construction site – depending on how long the quarantine. In metallurgy, too, because half consumed within the country of production of this sector goes to the construction site. The coal miners a bad situation, but in this industry after the crisis of the redevelopment of the 1990s is now about 100 thousand persons in employment (compare to 1 million in the Soviet time!), and there is more likely to be part-time employment, not layoffs. It is clear that there will be problems in the oil industry in connection with the reduction of mining under the impact of the old well is the Volga, the Urals, and partly KHMAO. How will the oil companies in this situation – we do not know, but they have money and employment is legal, so if they cut something from indemnities.
This unusual crisis will increase the degree of autonomy of regions, as some experts believe?
– And where are the regions? They are weak players in this story, to help businesses without significant means from the Federal budget will still not be able. They will close holes in their own budget formed due to sagging revenues, but the unfortunate 200 billion spread over the country, just not enough even for that. At best, local authorities can mitigate the terms of the lease of a municipal or regional property, and then for three months to cancel the lease payments, that would be nice or forgive the payment of patents, vmenenku and simplified tax system (it’s their taxes), losses for the budgets will be considerable, but not critical. It seems to me that not all governors are aiming – as in quarantine not kill the business. This is really a difficult task that must be solved. Nobody knows the right balance. All by touch.
I repeat: no one, except for Moscow, no money, and everything will depend on how efficient and technologically advanced to act the feds – and when they finally end the attack of greed. They must understand that if we do not help people and business, effective demand will peloubet, and the whole economy mowed. But in addition to those 200 MAWP. rubles, it was decided that the regions will be able to lend to each other. It is clear that this attempt to withdraw the money from the budget of Moscow. Appeal from the Kremlin and make an offer you can’t refuse: “why don’t you help the beloved Tula region! And then she would ever get back to you this debt”.
the Logic is simple: in order to protect the Federal budget and the accumulation of the Fund, looking for wherever possible. Probably Moscow, a city where the per capita spending of the budget in 2,5 times higher than the national average, and 3-4 times higher than in adjacent areas of the Tver and Vladimir, could share. But the question arises: what Is the ‘ sovereign wealthniya what and when are you going to do? There is no clarity.
– In connection with declared by the President to the governors responsibility for the development of the epidemic began to talk about the new federalization of Russia…
– on the one hand, we see an attempt to take into account regional diversity, what is right, because all the situation is different. If everyone in the country decided one Federal office, you would not seem enough. On the other hand, we see an attempt of the centre to shift responsibility to the heads of the regions without adding substantial additional resources. They were only given the opportunity to decide what and how to restrict.
the basic problem is that the governors are mostly foreign for the regions people, sometimes poor knowledge of the local context. Besides, none of them ever was in a similar situation when they must not only fulfill launched from the capital guidelines, and to be leaders in their territories, capable of taking adequate decisions. Not all succeed, and to be surprised?
Incorrect or, on the contrary, competent decisions at the regional level will now be much more visible. Another thing is that all this is done with an eye not on the business, not on the people, and that will tell the Federal center. So forget about federalism! Temporary transfer of authority to be scapegoats for federalism is not irrelevant.
