There are two main factors that in the medium term will support the global equity and debt platforms afloat. Read more about them, especially for the “Russian newspaper” said Sergey Drozdov, the analyst CC “FINAM”, and also gave a forecast of the ruble in July:
– the First and most significant factor is, according to experts, the continuation of the global regulators of loose monetary policy and joining the markets of new portions of liquidity. And the second is the undying quest of Donald trump before the presidential election to retain American stock exchange near maximum marks.
Now, despite the news about the growing cases of infection with coronavirus in the individual North American States and China, investors are betting that even if the deterioration of the situation with the pandemic, the country would not re-close its economy.
in addition, the growth of world stock indicators is stimulated by the actions of the Federal reserve and its major peers, which since March this year has poured into financial markets more than 5 trillion dollars. And, by the statements of some of the heads of Central banks will provide additional financial assistance if the situation requires.
although the policy of regulators, in fact, is for players of a subsidy for the purchase of risky assets, the purchase by Central banks of a broad class of assets creates some stability in global financial markets. However the primary factor for the formation of the Russian currency has traditionally been the oil price.
At the moment, after all the positive news associated with the extension of the agreement to reduce oil production by the OPEC countries+, the price of black gold are becoming increasingly dependent on market conditions in the global financial markets. And there are still fears concerning the second wave of the pandemic. So the main point of reference for future price movement of a futures contract Brent will be the dynamics of world stock index futures.
given the current situation prevailing in global stock and commodity markets, the base scenario of July on the pair dollar/ruble implies the preservation of the range 68-70,50.
Support for the Russian currency will continue to provide foreign exchange intervention of the Central Bank, which they exercise in the budgetary rules. And selling currencies the largest exporters for the payment of dividends, the bulk of which occurs in July.
the Main risk for the ruble could become a sharp change of sentiment in global financial markets and the energy market. And in this scenario the ruble for a while, maybe even come to the level of 72 per dollar.
