It seems that Alexander Lukashenko realized the depth of the crisis in which is immersed and his country, and he personally as a politician. The President of Belarus stated publicly that he will ask the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, assistance to cope with the “color revolution”. Whether you want Russia to help the Belarusian government, and if so on what terms?
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko rejected a proposal by Poland and the Baltic States mediation services (resembling an offer of surrender). “Listen, we have a normal government created by the Constitution. We don’t need no foreign government, no middlemen. I think that, without offending the leadership of the Republic, I want to say: you place the order, he said. – No government or abroad, wherever it is, we don’t need, and manage it will never be a country. Really did not study history?”.
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help me, Help
And at the same time, Lukashenko asks for help from Moscow. Of course, right to mention the fact that this assistance is in the interests of Russia itself.
“in fact, the scenario unfolds aggression against Belarus. It is necessary to contact with Putin, President of Russia, so I could talk to him now. Because this is a threat not only in Belarus Protection for Belarus now is not less than the protection of all of our space, the Union state, and an example to others. If Belarusians will not stand, roll this wave there. So for us clung so”, – said Alexander Lukashenko.
More recently drawn Lukashenka’s threats of independence would be enough to ensure that Russia did not hesitate to help. Free as brothers “would have saved the Belarusian people from the Maidan and its consequences.” Putin met with Lukashenko addressed the Belarusian people (and the popularity of the Russian leader there is a big – no accident Minsk does not publish the relevant opinion polls), would give the Federal government money. And it certainly would have affected the political position of the Belarusian President in the best side – benefit of the Belarusian population (in contrast to Ukrainian) are not educated in Russophobia.
Now, however, such a reaction from Russia. Yes, Vladimir Putin talked to Lukashenka on the phone. Yes, Lukashenko said that “we agreed with him: at first our request will be provided full assistance for the security of the Republic of Belarus”. Yes, he said that “Putin is aware of what is happening” and makes it clear that the Russian leader supports it.
But the thesis “on first request” is not confirmed. Just look at the official summary of the conversation to understand that the Russian President has taken a neutral position sympathetic to the official Minsk. His only criticism concerned the anonymous “destructive forces” that seek to undermine the mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries in the framework of the Union state.
It is possible that this position stems from the fact that these destructive forces are, in fact, as the Western countries (coordinating and partly funding the protests) and Alexander Lukashenko in recent months, is highly unfavourable to Russia. Moscow was not for not wanting to increase the volume of subsidy of the Belarusian economy, and for alleged interference in Belarusian elections. The high point was the capture at the end of July hostage more than three dozen Russian citizens, who are not just charged with preparing to organize riots, but was given to understand that can give them to Ukraine (two thirds of the detainees fought on the side LNR and DND). And although in the end they were returned to Russia, the sediment that is there.
Do we need Russia to help the Belarusian leader?
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Andrea Fomochkina
Some say definitely Yes. And argument is in the style of Lukashenko – “or war, or the Maidan, or in March”. If Belarus will fall into the hands of the resistance and its deployed to the West, along all the borders of Russia from the Baltic to the Black sea will be stretched a curtain that cut off the Russian Federation from the European Union. The curtain, which will be controlled not from Brussels (with these it is possible to agree on common interests much), but from Washington. The old man – be it good, bad, or evil, is the main obstacle to the realization of this very unpleasant scenario for Russia.
Others claim that it is not necessary. Lukashenka doesn’t deserve it. That Man is a political burden. Tales Lukashenko about the “or independence” they are not scared. Belarusian society is deeply Pro-Russian and ideologically far from independence – not to mention the fact that they can see what the bottom led of the “revolution of dignity” of their southern neighbor.
If Lukashenko knock over, that the country will hold early elections (Svetlana Tikhanovski once said that the rule is not going). And if the Russian strategists will work professionally, it is possible to bet on any Pro-Russian politician (discarded Lukashenko out of power for Pro-Russian sentiment), to consolidate around him, the Belarusian majority and lead the polls for President.
A choice of two proposed options suggests simple: to help Belarus. She is a brotherly country, and Belarusians – the brotherly people. It is not necessary to identify the Belarusians Lukashenka.
Brotherly Russia Andreev Fomochkina (the same Director of Belarus “Republican centre of Olympic training in athletics”, which made the Russian flag at the Paralympic games in Rio) and the policy, which is now exposed in itsthe country is huge criticism from its own citizens.
“to Help Russia, but not Lukashenko, and the Belarusian state. If the situation comes to a standstill, that Russia should make peace initiatives and put at the negotiating table side. Compromise will have to publicly and openly. Conditions – guarantee of fulfillment of obligations of the Federal government, regardless of the name of the President. If you get to the civil war, you will have to fulfill military obligations”, – says the newspaper VIEW chief editor of the Russian-Belarusian project “Sonar-2050” semen Uralov.
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As for Lukashenka, indeed, his saving power may be seen by Moscow as part of aid to the Belarusian people – at least from the point of view of preserving stability in the country and to ensure gradual rather than radical process change. However, the Belarusian President needs to understand that aid is based on the principle “that should not have less than me” will not. If Lukashenka wants Russian support, it will have to pay.
Alexander Lukashenko complained that Moscow translated fraternal Russia-Belarus relations in the status of partner but he moved at the very moment when he began to demand the preservation and increase of subsidies and thus gave only assurances of friendship. At the same time, buying oil from the Americans (in the midst of the Russian-American petroleum conflict), cleaning the political space of the country from Pro-Russian forces, supporting the smuggling of banned in Russia European goods through Belarus, flirting with anti-Russian nationalists, etc.
“the Belarusian leadership twenty years of experience of simulation steps forward, so you need to help only on the basis of reciprocity. Moreover, to each stage and type of assistance to be treated according to the principle “you – me, I – you,” – says the newspaper VIEW senior researcher at the Higher school of Economics Andrei scribe.
And now the main question is that from Lukashenko to demand in exchange for support? Some provisions seem obvious – for example, the termination of anti-Russian domestic policy in Belarus. “Normal business environment of Russian companies (which in recent months regularly searched) and the attitude of the Russian citizens by law enforcement agencies. And freedom of actions of the Russian information infrastructure (media, foundations) whose local methodically ousted from Belarus together with Pro-Russian forces”, – says Andrey scribe.
Also looks obvious requirement to engage finally a real deepening of integration within the Union state. Delegation of sovereignty, unification of legislation, perehab to the single currency, etc. Someone, of course, it may seem that Lukashenka phrase “no government or abroad, wherever it is, we don’t need, and manage it will never be a country” was addressed not only to the West but also Russia. But if the Belarusian colleagues will again say that “Russians wear cork hats” (i.e. see themselves as colonizers), Moscow just stand aside and offer Lukashenko to deal with the fact that in independent Belarus did.
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is Not to go too
As for the rest of the list of requirements, it is important to be aware of some important circumstances.
First, not to demand from Lukashenka that will create a problem for Russia. In this Fund, for example, is subject to the requirement to the old Man to finally recognize the Russian Crimea. It would seem that now is the time – the Ukrainian President Zelensky is not only recognized the victory of Lukashenko in the elections, but actually instigated the conflict between Russia and Belarus around the story of “vagnerovsky”. Russians and Belarusians are considered to be a reciprocal recognition of the Crimea is fair.
However, it is not so profitable. The recognition of the Crimea will lead to a sharp aggravation of Belarusian-Ukrainian relations, and problems for Belarusian citizens, the mass transfer of Ukrainian radicals for training in Belarus and, most importantly, minimize the Minsk format of negotiations on Donbas. If Russia wants to continue these negotiations (and she wants), you lead them still better in Minsk and not in Vienna or Stockholm.
Second, there is no need to demand that from which Russia will not be much use. For example, the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent States. It’s not even that because of this, Belarus (the Union state) would be under sanctions, and will lose the money that may should be compensated from the Russian budget. Putting this requirement in order to gratify pride, Russia will spend just a card exchange.
Finally, it is not necessary to require that becomes meaningless humiliation Lukashenko. And it’s not on already circulating on the Internet demanding that Lukashenko “to shave off his mustache, to go some time, look at yourself in the mirror and remember what price they had to pay for insulting Russia.” Talking about, for example, the privatization of Russian companies to the Belarusian refineries.
You need to understand that the Belarusian industry is the pride of the local population and partly the property of the local KGB. If Russia wants to integrate with Belarus, it is not necessary to deny the dignity of some and the money of others. Enough to make Minsk did not prevent Russian companies to compete with local market laws and did not take in the case of economic disputes hostage Russian top Managergerow (as it was in 2013 Vladislav Baumgertner).
Some experts say that moderation in the conditions must be accompanied by more caution and time.
“I shouldn’t have to help until he will calm the situation in the country. And it’s not about the suppression of the protests – they are only the sharpest expression of discontent, which is very wide. You need to take a pause and see whether there will be Lukashenko recognized President of the country”, – says Andrey scribe.
In his opinion, to rush through dangerous because “it could be interpreted as support for an illegitimate President, and will only set them against Russia,” and also adds to an existing split of a clear foreign policy dimension that may only increase and radicalize the opposition.
However, on the other hand, a good spoon for dinner – Lukashenko needs Russia right now. So, now he is ready to negotiate the terms of this support. If you temporarily leave him in the lurch, the consequence may be either the overthrow of the Farther (and further support the Pro-Russian candidate and on the list), either the establishment in Belarus of the military junta, to which the desired policy for Russia will be much more difficult.
