the Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said at an online press conference, one month of quarantine will cost the Russian economy 1.5-2% of GDP in 2020 under the baseline scenario, the Central Bank, the negative effects will be concentrated in the second quarter
the Bank of Russia / YouTube According to her, the new forecast is for the next meeting, at a rate which is scheduled on April 24, “today to voice any quantitative assessment is considered premature because of their preliminary and speed of the changes”
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the Head of the Central Bank Elvira NabiMelina stated at the online press conference, one month of quarantine will cost the Russian economy 1.5-2% of GDP in 2020 under the baseline scenario, the Central Bank, the negative effects will be concentrated in the second quarter .
“In Russia, said yesterday the President, the period of holidays, which began this Monday and will last until April 30. In many regions introduced additional restrictions on economic activity. These measures, which are essential to combat the epidemic, unfortunately, will inevitably have a negative impact on the economy”, – quotes the Minister “Interfax”.
“We will carefully examine all available information during the preparation of the forecast for the next meeting at the rate. The experience of other countries shows that a month of quarantine in the whole country could cost the economy 1.5-2% of annual GDP. But the cumulative effect will depend on – how long are restrictive measures”, – said the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation outside the influence of the APR on the dynamics of GDP in 2020.
“Based on the nature of the reasons for the decline in economic activity, the baseline scenario for us is that negative effects are likely to be concentrated within the second quarter of this year. In the second half of the year, as easing of restrictive measures in Russia and in the world economy will return to normal mode of functioning”, – said the head of the Central Bank.
According to her, the new forecast is for the next meeting at a rate, which is scheduled for April 24 “today to voice any quantitative assessment is considered premature because of their preliminary and speed of the changes”.
Russia’s GDP in April in annual terms could be reduced by double-digit values in the range of 20%, in whole in 2020, it can reduce the dynamics of GDP by 1-2 percentage points, said “Interfax” economists the question of how a fully working APR maybe its possible impact on the Russian economy.
Chapter Schethnoi of the Chamber Alexei Kudrin said Wednesday that the fall in GDP in 2020 even in the moderate scenario is estimated at 3-5% and in the pessimistic situation could be repeated in 2009 with a fall of 8%.
Citizens will be able to “vacation credit”. Once, and this is not a forgiveness of payments, and deferral
we will Remind, the state Duma meeting on 1 April passed a law which gives the right to citizens, whose income fell by more than 30% compared to the 2019 year to receive vacation credit for 6 months. Similar measures apply also to SMEs from the industries most affected by the pandemic COVID-19. The law was approved by the Federation Council and sent to the President for signature.
separately, the Central Bank said that the loan payments during days off, extended until the end of April, should be implemented in time in accordance with the contract.
Nabiullina called citizens “knowingly and intelligently” approach to the enjoyment of the right to vacation credit, to use this measure, if the loss of income really does not allow you to repay the loan.
“In the coming days to earn a law about credit vacation. This is a guaranteed opportunity for a citizen to obtain a deferment on loan payments for 6 months if his income during the last month fell by more than 30% compared to the average monthly income for 2019. This right you need to use a well-planned and balanced approach when for these vacations to go”, – said the head of the Central Bank during an online conference on Friday.
Nabiullina reminded that the holidays are for six months, they may contact each of the Russians “absolutely every day” until September 30. The second time a vacation to take will not work, so use this right is only if the revenues indeed fell sharply and the borrower can not pay the loan, warned the head of the Bank of Russia. “Vacation is not debt forgiveness, and postponement PLAtia transferred to the future,” she said.
According to her, in the near future the government will determine the method of calculating the average monthly income for 2019. “We recommend that before applying, calculate how much lower your income for the past year, according to this methodology, not to the denial of vacation under the new law”, – said Nabiullina to the citizens.
“the Banks we recommend, very strongly recommend, to organize services to verify the correctness of the calculation of the amounts of income submitted in the bids and such services should be very transparent and clear to applicants and work remotely”, she added.
How banks will work during the quarantine
In the first non-working week, from 30 March to 5 April, the Central Bank recommended credit institutions to operate in a mode similar to the Christmas holidays, but if necessary, to determine the list of duty offices. Now the regulator has given a new explanation.
He pointed out that to work in April will be able to banks, pension funds, management companies and specialized depositaries, carrying out the accrual and payment of pensions, management of pension funds and reserves, mutual funds, insurance companies (for performing their obligations under the contracts of compulsory and voluntary health insurance and contracts of obligatory third party liability insurance), as well as the exchange infrastructure (exchanges, clearing organizations, depositories and market participants).
in Order to provide continuous access organizations and the public to critically important services to banks and non-Bank financial institutions, banks must provide these services, primarily through digital services and remote channels, said the Central Bank.
If the Bank can not provide critical servicesand remotely, it will have to be able to carry out these operations in offline mode, in compliance with all requirements of protection against infection with a coronavirus.
At the same time banks are recommended to leave the minimum of employees of IT-departments, accounting and other departments of the back office, except for those who directly serves clients. They are also reminded to promptly publish information on the operation of the sites or otherwise, available to clients.
the Bank of Russia proceeds from the fact that the obligations for financial transactions, the deadline of which falls on non-business days shall be executed by the debtors in the period stipulated in the contract.
But also the Central Bank “comes from the fact that creditors acting in good faith will take into account the actual ability of the debtor on execution of commitments, the presence or absence of at its disposal the possibility of remote maintenance, and in the absence of such opportunities – mode” restrictions imposed in a specific region.
April 6th, financial institutions will be required to resume reporting. Information about the list of reporting forms of credit institutions will be communicated to credit organizations additionally.
Payment system of the Bank of Russia, and also the system fast payments (SBP) for the period from 4 to 30 April 2020 except Saturdays and Sundays, will operate in the normal mode, as in normal working days.
In the same mode will be cash customer service of the Central Bank (credit institutions, the Federal Treasury). The work of the payment system and other payment systems on the Russian market, will be provided as usual.
