But the Central Bank still hopes to avoid a recession in the economy.
the GDP will be in negative territory by the end of 2020., said the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina on April 10.
March 20 Nabiullina said that 2020 GDP still will grow. But, as in March, it is now cautioned to consider what is happening in the economy recession: usually a recession is negative economic growth for several consecutive quarters, not less than two.
In the third quarter Nabiullina expects growth of the Russian economy in comparison with II quarter of this year (with the exclusion of seasonality), and then technically the recession will be avoided.
In early April, followed a week outside of due of the spread of coronavirus, President Vladimir Putin declared the entire month of April. And for the last week (the first week is declared a month), according to the Bank, already 84% of businesses noted the negative impact of the situation compared to 73% of the enterprises in the previous week. Less than 30% reported supply disruptions, 40% — cancellation and postponement of orders. Two-thirds of companies expected deterioration of the situation, while 15% see the rising demand, said Elvira.
Their grades drop in economic activity in the days of the regime of self-isolation is regularly CMASF. According to the intensity of electricity consumption on April 10, CMASF estimates the average fall in economic activity 11.7% center parameters were estimated for the period from 30 March to 9 April and compared them with working days from 23 to 27 March.
His new forecast of the Central Bank will present to the Board of Directors meeting in late April. It should be taken once a decision to change the key rate. On press-conference April 3, Nabiullina gave the market a signal about a possible reduction of the key rate in 2020., however, some analysts felt that it should expect more in June, and not at the next April meeting.
the Ministry decided to temporarily transfer the development of its forecast socio-economic the development of the country at a later date, the spokesman of the Ministry announced on 9 April. In early March the Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov said that was prepared in January macroeconomic forecast of development of Russia in the years 2020-2022 not sufficiently take into account the impact of the virus on the global economy. The current forecast “raises many questions” because it was prepared taking into account forecasts that China’s economy by the end of the first quarter of 2020, will begin to recover, he said.
Svetlana Yastrebova
