the Former Prime Minister has compared the current situation with previous crises. In his opinion, part of the problem is temporary, and therefore recovery may be rapid.
Deputy Chairman of the security Council, Dmitry Medvedev wrote an article for the magazine “Russia in global politics” in which he expressed his views on various problems arising in connection with the pandemic coronavirus. In particular, the former Prime Minister said that Russia against the background of the global crisis is affected by three economic shocks.
“This is the main shock, as the domestic economy has remained dependent on exports of hydrocarbons,” he said. However, he recalled that “over the past 20 years, Russia has thrice withstood such attacks”: as at the end of XX century, and in 2008-2009-m in 2014-2015.
“so, it is easy to calculate the impact of this shock on the economy and determine the most effective measures to reduce the negative consequences,” — said Medvedev.
Medvedev said that apparently the incident reminded me of the situation of the early 1990-ies, when the economic process had a separate economic entities. However, he stressed that in this case, the closure of enterprises was the result of non-economic decisions. “Conventional approaches to the analysis of economic and financial crises are not applicable,” — said Medvedev.
According to the former Premier, the fall time may be limited by the retention period regulatory decisions, and the economic recovery will begin quickly enough, if this does not prevent a new wave of the epidemic.
the Third shock for the Russian economy, Medvedev said the decline in foreign demand for domestic goods, comparable to what happened during the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. But these problems, in his opinion, are of a temporary nature because the decline in exports is associated with restrictive measures and a temporary rupture of economic and logistics linkages. Medvedev warned that in the event of a new pandemic on the global economy will suffer a devastating blow, comparable only with the world wars.
“the Current adverse situation could trigger a new financial crisis in one or more countries. This, in turn, will put pressure on financial and currency markets of Russia and will cause additional decline in demand for Russian exports,” — said Medvedev.
Deputy Chairman of the security Council also called basic principles socio-economic politics on the stage of opening of the economy: the removal of all restrictions, support of employees and individual entrepreneurs, including through reform of labour laws, lowering isderGEC experiencing the company in connection with the conduct of the business, streamlining Supervisory activities, maintaining budget commitments.
“of Course, the volume of the state support measures must be comparable to the extent of the losses of the economy and welfare of citizens. But it is obvious that life will be more complicated and will make the inevitable adjustments even at the first stage of the crisis,” Medvedev admitted.
