In may 2020 market research of the Russian manufacturing companies Markit and the Gaidar Institute (IEP), although fixed and some improvement of the current estimates of demand conditions in the manufacturing industry, but fundamentally differ in their predictions. If the PMI indicates a reduction in release on the horizon year, the production plans of the respondents of IEP returned to the level of March 2020. How do polls and the sharp variation of the consensus forecasts of dynamics of industrial production point to a sharp increase in uncertainty, which is primarily tied to the state of domestic demand.PMI Markit in may 2020 April played a few drop to 31.3 points to 36.2 points (a reading above 50 points indicates the growth rate of output) seasonally adjusted. However, in may the decline in new orders, including export, showed another record from December 2008, second only to April’s figure Agency respondents note that the capacity release will lead to more layoffs and devaluation of the ruble began to exert pressure on costs, forcing them to raise selling prices (statistics APR is not reflected — industrial prices fell). At the same time the commonest fears of companies associated with protracted exit from the crisis and the continuation of the period of low demand, which causes them to anticipate a negative output and a year.Respondents from among the processing companies interviewed in may by the Gaidar Institute, particularly in relation to the recovery prospects were more positive. The author of the study Sergey Tsukhlo can not explain the reason for this discrepancy, and the results of the may survey of manufacturers from Rosstat will only appear today. “Several times I checked the numbers may answers. All pretty positive, and it fit into the official view on the state of the industry and prospects of overcoming the crisis”,— said Mr. Tsukhlo.According to the IEP, the assessment of actual demand for the products in may of played 11 points after falling 39 points in April, and his predictions are actually returned to the level of March. Then, the industry “was only under the pressure of low oil prices and did not represent the whole of the determination and of the consequences of anti-epidemic actions of the authorities”,— analysts say. Positive changes in the dynamics of demand has allowed companies in a similar way to adjust and release, and his plans at one point even higher than in March — by may, the redundancy of stocks of finished products fell to pre-crisis values. Against this background, the forecasts of the IEP, in contrast to the Markit survey, record that the company refused to raise prices and show very moderate prognosy their changes, as well as the fact that in may the intensity of dismissals has decreased three times, and the balance of plans for changes in the number of employees was zero.Meanwhile, reason to believe that treatment really will demonstrate a quick V-shaped recovery from the crisis, no. Improved forecasts of Industrialists, recorded IEP, hardly reliable — they are traditionally strongly disagree with the actual estimates. Return the current estimates of the level of March 2020 is also unlikely to indicate the normalization of the situation — according to Rosstat, net financial result (profit minus loss) in the processing in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 6.3% from the level a year ago. The volume of profits decreased by 27%, and losses increased more than five times, although the share of unprofitable companies increased by only 3 percentage points (to 35.9%). Lack of investment and low productivity are the companies problems, in contrast to low demand (see chart).At the same time, what hope companies surveyed by the IEP is not clear. General assessment of economic measures of state support was low, and 30% of them directly said that they need interventions by the authorities was proposed. The most popular industry measure (the subsidy rate of the loans for working capital) gained 36% of the votes and the support of the population the rating of anti-crisis measures according to industry, i.e. the manufacturing company do not expect support demand from households.Note that, according to surveys by Markit, in may, the uncertainty continued to increase its influence on predictions, and, according to the IEP in April, among the constraints to growth, this factor was ranked first (72% of enterprises, against 30% in January 2020), ahead of the limitations of demand. The growth of uncertainty, evidenced by the may consensus forecast of analysts FocusEconomics based on data from 14 forecasters from investment banks and research institutes. According to him, the Russian industry in 2020 will reduce the volume of output by 4.7% (in April it expected a decline of 1.3 percent), despite the fact that the dispersion of forecasts ranged from minus 10% to minus 1.7 percent.Alexey Shapovalov
