Removing from the race of rating candidates for President – Victor Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo, Alexander Lukashenko once again demonstrated not only dictatorial aspirations, but also your own. Never before has he so clearly does not “eliminate” opponents at the start, because he knew that his personal popularity is still quite high, and this allows him to win an “elegant victory”, creating at least the appearance of fair elections.
this time, in the first stage, it became clear that to win, giving opponents a consolation 3-5 percent, as in previous elections, will not work. Just because no one would believe that. And draw the result with a margin over the opponent in 15-20% below the dignity of Lukashenko. But these personal games his vanity and self-hypnosis have not any relation to the real life of Belarus. Over 26 years of rule by a popularly elected Man, received in 1994, their only real 80.6 percent support, has long turned into Stepfather. And after 9 August this year he will become a hateful Stepfather. As it happened, try to understand…
of the many harmless stories about the management style of Lukashenko at the beginning of the two thousandth in the course was: “At the government meeting the old Man looks around Ministers and a stern voice says ( with obvious Belarusian accent): “I know one of you is lying to me and who is not lying. Still all will peredergivali”. Shake up is what’s going on in Belarus all 26 years of Batko. Because of this, the President has actually not checked its command, combat core, and there are temporary companions and obvious hangers-on. In almost three decades, the number of “paratrahome” has reached a considerable size, almost there is no sphere for which the old Man showed his interest. All those offended, detached, “cleaned” make up a significant part of the electorate, which had fallen off from him, with the deepening of the personal power of Lukashenka. The main refrain of the current campaign: “I’m Bored!”. Although there are those who Lukashenko is profitable and convenient.
When the operation – wolf
As a former Soviet collective farm Chairman, Lukashenko always wary of private business. In his emotional speeches of the representatives of this kind of activity was characterized as “lousy fleas”. About how hard it is to be a businessman in the country Farther, was written more than once. Tax laws are changing every three to five years, the new rules of doing business, such as permission to small businesses to hire only relatives – all this contributes to the growth of commercial activity in the community. The mainstay of the economy, Lukashenko has always been a major enterprise. And the working class – as the basis of the electorate Lukashenko. After coming to power, the old Man of theUNO “eliminated” the “Red Directors” destroying the industry “the Fronde” in the Bud. For many years businesses tied to government contracts and public procurement, was his loyal support. However, in the past decade, several industries have experienced repeated “Stripping”. And okay it was unprofitable, effectively running the enterprise. But no, the nationalization had been the ones who started to generate income. In 2012, the state took over confectionery factory “Kommunarka”, “Spartak” and “Krasny pischevik”. Then the nationalization was subjected to the woodworking industry – “Pinskdrev”, “Baranovichidrev”. Ceased to be joint-stock companies factories “Keramin”. “Orsha aircraft repair plant”, “Minsk bearing plant” and a dozen other companies. And interestingly, after the “gosudarstvennie” these companies, their revenue fell. Because the “planned economy” in the current environment is not working. Revenues turned negative, which affected the salaries of employees. “I rabreau at the factory, and get on forces 300 dollars a month. And it’s still a lot for some plants, and goes on a hundred dollars.” It is understandable that people with such income, the President is like the old Man does not perceive… And the last scandal of last spring, when suddenly disappeared Director of the six sugar factories that were found subsequently in jail, and does not contribute to the confidence of producers in the future.
Yaroslav Romanchuk, an economist, a presidential candidate in Belarus in 2010:
– a Third of industrial enterprises in Belarus are unprofitable, and wages are far from the promised Lukashenko $ 500. Lukashenko tried to modernize this sector, but the reform failed. As a result, losses are loss-making enterprises increased 7 times. Increased the number of people in neoplaziei leave, staff began to transfer to part-time and so on. Naturally the level of income of the population fell, many even loans can not take. Previously in all elections worked the following scheme: the workers received a glass of bacon, and instead stared at the political performance of the President. Now, this social contract is not working.
“Kultproject” creative intelligentsia
the Creative intelligentsia has always belonged to Lukashenko with sarcasm. Well, how else can you perceive the head of state, who declared that “grew up on the poems by Vasil Bykov”(who in fact wrote only prose), or about “Black square” – “I have him in one night painted”. Recounted his revelations about Skaryna, who “lived and worked in St. Petersburg” – 150 years before the formation of the city on the Neva. However amusing the ignorance of Badi is not a reason to passionately not wanting his re-election, and state issues, and culture support��AET. The truth is only that which thinks itself. It is clear that all sorts of avant-garde currents it does not include. In fact, the attitude to the culture of Lukashenko – a purely Soviet. To sing the right songs, about flax, about love, about the blue-eyed Belarus. Remove the positive films. Those who do not fit the “agenda” – out on the stage area closed. Tame the figures concerts with the distribution of tickets by businesses. It is this “partisanship in literature and art,” censorship and “black lists” insults creative Belarusians. And then treated with philanthropist Victor Babariko, who has done a lot for revival of the Belarusian culture, returning to the country of the works of Belarusian artists on that state money was not there to hurt them permanently. Even apolitical and independent from the Directors, artists, theaters erupted with an open letter with a hundred signatures on it, urging to hold the country finally fair elections. Now the country is gaining popularity action “Kultproject”.
Andrei Suzdaltsev, political analyst
– intellectuals Lukashenko created the illusion of a superpower that Belarus is almost the Empire, the state has the times of the Polotsk Principality. However, in this area there is a kind of split. A great part of those who were forced to sing along with the authorities because the required orders and work. Who does not like, he left the country. In Moscow and St.-Petersburg a lot of creative people – came from Belarus. The rest were divided into two categories, neutral and nationalists. The latter is very unstable and often Russophobes. But the anti-Russian campaign Lukashenko does not prevent him from immediately to request support from Moscow, which is at least puzzling.
of Course, this year has shown that there are new people dissatisfied with the government.
you’ve got to understand that the drama – people are sensitive to their audience. They are forced to adapt to the mood of society, otherwise they simply will not go. Feeling that sitting in the hall are not supporters of Lukashenko, they may unconsciously get used to the new realities. And quite sincerely. They have such a job, it’s no wonder they say that valuable creative workers – the indicators of sentiment.
Youth: “I Want to live in Belarus”
“the Youth we lost” – recently Lukashenka stated. Even he understands that this is not his electorate. When the old Man came to power, he burned the idea to revive the Komsomol. A certain similarity was then the Belarusian Union of Patriotic youth, which even were a considerable number of supporters. Lukashenko was then a young politician, opposing the former nomenclature, because the youth considered it their duty to support it. However, over time BSM has degenerated into the nomenclature structuretour, where record or by coercion, or at all, without putting students on notice that they are are members of this organization. Nothing but irritation, but this structure in young people now is. Two Lukashenka himself for the present young generation has long been a “mastodon”, a symbol of stagnation, which also periodically encroaches on the freedom of the Internet makes work of the Institute after several years in distribution. Moreover, the unemployment rate that does not change. As shown by opinion polls, 37% of the population are concerned about the level of unemployment in the country. And beat it, mostly by young people. Many, therefore, are forced to seek work in the near Poland. “I want to live and work in their country. I don’t want to leave!” – during the past rallies passionately explained the young man. According to his understanding, in the country under the leadership of Lukashenko, he has no prospects. First and foremost, it is insufficient for the younger generation the level of freedom and justice. Even apolitical and independent from the Directors, artists, theaters erupted with an open letter with a hundred signatures on it, urging to hold the country finally fair elections. “I, for example, wanted to put a signature for Lukashenko,- has explained his position as one young man of 18, But anywhere pickets with the subscription lists for it was not? As it gathered more than a million? And I know that the parent company was forced to sign for it, and we at the Institute said, do not put a signature – you will not be a dormitory.” Not surprisingly, the core of the current spontaneous protests in Minsk and other cities became the youth. The brutality with which they dispersed, probably already removes them from the electorate Lukashenko for the foreseeable future. You need to take into account that Belarus is a young country. Youth here refers every fifth inhabitant of the country. In 2019, the number of young people reached 2 million when the total population of 10 million.
Andrei Dmitriev, the candidate in presidents of Belarus:
– Perhaps some of the young people will vote for Lukashenko, but they will be the absolute minority. Maybe they’ll do it because I don’t know anybody except him. This is not surprising because many whole life took place under the same President. It is for them like the weather. The majority will vote against because I don’t want to seek a better life abroad. Young people want to benefit their country, this desire can only be welcomed. It is unlikely for the remaining three weeks, Lukashenka would be able to convince them that it meets their aspirations.
Managers of the “backwater”
Not once had to hear that, as employees of district and regional administrations breathy speak of the current President – “our expeR G.”. Managers is nuclear Lukashenko’s electorate. Through many years of selection in the administrations of different levels were the ones who are willing to strictly follow the tasks set by Lukashenka. It’s not just his supporters, it was his “accomplices”, has repeatedly proven themselves during the previous election campaigns. For this they rely increased, in comparison with the rest of the population, salary. If the average salary in Belarus in 2020 is about 600 Belarusian rubles, the average official salary starts from 1212 rubles and reaches 5000. Plus benefits and incentives – all in the development of Soviet society. Voluntarily to abandon such a life – wanting is not enough. Moreover, if you trample of the officials and business in Belarus, you are unlikely to do. And if the top officials are still waiting for periodic “perestrakhovanie” to prevent, then in the middle reigns almost “Brezhnev stagnation”. It is important not to upset the Man, because the quieter the better. The army of civil servants in the country reached just over 100 thousand people.
Dmitry Bolkunets, the analyst:
– If in the 1990-ies the main electorate of Lukashenka was a villager, now its electorate has changed greatly and reduced. Most often Lukashenko has the support of the officials of the security forces. They are still loyal to the government, because they themselves are. They fear that after the departure of Lukashenko, they will have to find a new job. A certain amount of truth in this. Besides, security officers regularly check on the loyalty of the lie detector. It should be noted that there is no ideological component for their loyalty to the regime there. They just get large salaries, much larger than the rest of the Belarusians. Their main goal is to do what Lukashenko says, and they cope with it. In addition, many sit in their positions as much as the President, so just can not imagine another life.
Power mode support
“security forces” – another loyal support Lukashenko. He once again expressed to them his “respect”, saying that people who did not serve in the army, the President of Belarus can not be. That is the future for the security forces. Since the government Farther in recent times rests “on bayonets” – the security forces, again, “not bad food”. The average salary in the Ministry of interior, say, 1200 rubles (compare with average salary in the country is 600 rubles). In addition, law enforcement authorities in Belarus are given “carte Blanche” to use force. In the country there was not a single case of ill-treatment the police, though such cases abound. The only one who periodically wool is KGB. Intelligence agencies, who know a lot about the inner workings of government, should be completely loyal. So they “kept the tone��”. In fact, the KGB long been the subjugation of Lukashenka’s elder son Viktar. First, he squeezed out a team of dedicated companion Farther Sheiman, then initiated the war between the interior Ministry and the KGB, by removing from the law enforcement system of “unnecessary” people. Now Victor is the curator of power structures in the presidential Administration and has its finger on the pulse, knowing full well that if the Pope does not get re-elected, he will have big problems. And yet something disturbing is happening in the “power unit”. Recently in social networks started a flash mob that allegedly the staff of the many departments of the KGB and Riot police, to the Prosecutor’s office and units of the airborne troops anonymously in social networks began to put their chevrons and badges next to the “antilukashenkovskimi slogans.” Perhaps this is a fake action. But everyone understands that even “security forces” are not homogeneous in their preferences.
Anatol Lyabedzka, a former candidate in the presidential campaign of 2015:
– Here there is a certain gradation. There are structures that are in very good financial position according to Belarusian standards. It is a management of power structures, heads of departments and even the employees who work in the office of the KGB or the interior Ministry. Thanks to Lukashenko, they have good salary and they retire early. When they get more bonuses than minuses.
But there are structures and low-level precinct, the people who catch criminals, engaged in criminal investigation – all those who are less tied to the political nature of power structures. There are enough people who do not support the regime of Lukashenka, and they sure can keep your job and when another President. They hate to see what happens, even just humanly. The last flash mob suggests that in the power Department there is a large percentage of people who also want change. Played by the factor that it is, including regular police force to participate in the crackdown on protests. If yesterday he did his work and thought are far from politics, but today it is sent to the Park to catch people. This is especially important in small towns where everyone knows each other. After this neighbors and friends he expressed a lot of unpleasant things. It is uncomfortable and, of course, are not happy.
Seniors: “no cups and greaves”
once Lukashenka was called “President of pensioners”, and an opposition that wants to win the election, staged the action “Hide grandmother’s passport”. Now it is from one grandmother, I had the opportunity to hear the story of “Corporation Lukashenko.” I was told how many hotels and how much money in Minsk built the President’s eldest son Victor, on which cars and motorcycles goes the President himself and his offspring. In General, if 20 years ago in the understanding of the Belarusian pensioner Dad was a defender of the dispossessed��’s from the bourgeoisie, fighting for social justice, but now he has become a “bourgeois.” Besides my grandmother, who already live a long time, remember what they promised the President, and understand that their pension was meager as twenty years ago, so she stayed. And if two decades ago over the country hung the constant “threat” (as claimed by the President), to be captured by the Pro-Western opposition, after its defeat in 2010 that problem anymore. And life is somehow not getting better. However, a certain part of pensioners will still vote for Lukashenko because he is the thin thread that connects them with the Soviet past. And sometimes very similar to other respected “mustached”.
Alexander Klaskouski, political analyst:
– Before, indeed, elderly people, retired people, particularly from the provinces were a solid Lukashenko’s electorate. To them he was the “father” and were given a good pension. Generally the older generation in Belarus there is a saying of “just war.” When Ukraine began Maidan, he said, “let’s See the neighbors reeling with them, and to the bloody events that came, and we all quietly and steadily”. And from time to time it all worked. Today, according to the campaign, which is particularly evident in the stream blogger Sergei Tikhanovski, retirees criticized Lukashenko worse than any of the opposition. This is a situation when from love to hate one step. In Belarus there is the expression “charka and shkvarka”, that is, until Lukashenko gave “glass of bacon”, and many supported him. Today, the country lags far behind in terms of economic development, standard of living lags behind the nearest neighbours, people get miserable pensions, at best, in the area of $ 200, their children can’t find work, and if you find that get the same maximum of $ 200 – this hopelessness and despair has led to the fact that a significant proportion of people of advanced age began to see Lukashenko is the cause of all ills and humiliating material conditions. He played against and image policy. Lukashenka reveals that he decided all the cases in the country, and it turned against him. It turns out that all the hardships too come from Lukashenko.
