The Loire, the Po and now the Rhine: the drought summer is affecting the most important rivers in Europe. If the water levels in the Rhine continue to fall, it is not only our energy supply that faces serious problems.
First the fish die-off in the Oder, now the extremely low levels in the Rhine: the ecosystems of our rivers are currently being severely affected. In contrast to rivers like the Loire in France or the Po in Italy, ships can still navigate on the Rhine – for now. Because the level in Kaub was 40 centimeters on Friday and therefore dangerously low.
The level at Kaub is currently on everyone’s lips. Kaub is an important interface in Rhine shipping, because that is where the maximum lowest water level is calculated. According to the Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG), Rhine navigation in this area “tends to come to a standstill” at water levels of 30 centimetres. For most ships, however, it is already too shallow and too narrow below 40 centimeters – then there is the danger of running aground. This is particularly the case for cargo ships.
The current level is not even the historic low. It was 25 centimeters in 2018. However, that was also in October, not in August. According to the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS)”, the low-water phase that is usual for the Rhine started much earlier this year in June.
The reasons for this are probably the persistent drought combined with the heat. Another important factor is the comparatively low snowfall in winter, because the meltwater from the Alps usually contributes to the rise in the Rhine level in early summer.
In general, the low water levels make shipping more expensive at first. According to the SWR, there are no ships that can be transported, as many have traveled across the Danube towards Ukraine to transport wheat.
Switching to trucks and freight trains at short notice is not that easy. Many companies specialize in transporting their goods by ship. According to the SWR, a ship could, for example, transport 1,000 tons of grain at once – but that would require around 40 trucks. Most freight forwarders would not be able to cope with the resulting demand, as many truck drivers are missing.
According to the industry journal “Verkehrsrundschau”, a switch to rail is currently not possible due to the inadequate infrastructure. Because there would already be cancellations or delays. A complete relocation of the ship transport is therefore not possible here either.
In concrete terms, most people will feel the consequences of the low water levels when there are supply bottlenecks and problems in our energy supply.
According to the news magazine “ Der Spiegel ”, the electricity supplier Uniper is already warning that the Staudinger 5 power plant in Hesse will soon have to reduce electricity production because too little coal is being delivered.
The Hessian coal-fired power plant is not alone in this: RWE boss Markus Krebber also warns that the restart of these power plants, which are actually supposed to compensate for the natural gas bottlenecks, may now take longer than planned. Because only a few ships could travel the difficult route loaded with hard coal. As a result, the cost of transporting coal has increased fourfold.
Another problem: Gas stations in southern Germany could remain empty. Already in 2018, when the historic low was reached, not enough petrol and diesel could be delivered via the Rhine. The result: temporarily empty petrol pumps. In order to get the situation under control, tank trucks had to move in.
But in contrast to 2018, the forwarding industry has been struggling with a shortage of drivers since this year, as BR reports. It is therefore questionable whether a quick deployment of tank trucks will be possible this time.
Curiously, the fact that there are currently no ships to transport coal and wheat from the Ukraine means that there is a lack of capacity in Germany. The Raiffeisen Association complained that large quantities of feed and food could not be transported. As a result, several tons of grain could get stuck in southern Germany, although they are needed more urgently elsewhere.
Even in the unlikely event that the level should not fall below 30 centimeters for the time being, the current situation is an enormous financial burden for many ferry companies. According to the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, in many places only ships suitable for shallow waters can sail at the moment. This means that there are currently fewer ships anyway, but they cannot transport goods and goods at full capacity. In the long run, however, it is not worthwhile for the ferry companies to travel in reduced numbers and with less freight, because they make losses in the long run.
This is especially the case when the operators have to rent other ships or call in excavators to clear the way for the ships – this costs the companies a lot of money. However, financial compensation through corresponding freight orders is not possible. This makes the situation a financial stress test for many ferry companies.
However, it is not foreseeable that the situation will ease anytime soon. Because it is expected that the level will first fall by another ten to 15 centimeters. And that would bring shipping to a complete standstill.
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