On Friday the state Duma adopted in the third final reading the bill allowing the tenants to unilaterally terminate the lease of space in the torgtsentrov, but with the loss of interim payments. The owners of the objects is expected outraged. But the “rent war” ended while in favor of the developers, can lead to an increase in the share of vacant retail space, the consultants predict. Against this background, the calm is observed on the office market: its participants are waiting for the end of the quarantine, to proceed with the revision of lease contracts.Torgtsentrov will lose magazinemichael is one of the most affected during the crisis of 2020, the segment of the real estate market and the current market situation will inevitably lead to an increase in vacancy rates, says the head of research at JLL Vladislav Fadeev. If at the end of last year, the vacancy rate in quality torgtsentrov of Moscow amounted to 4.1% and St. Petersburg is 3.6%, at the end of this year the indicators of the two cities reached 8-10%. CBRE has also adjusted its forecast: if before the crisis, they assumed that by the end of 2020 will be vacant 7% of premises now the rate may exceed 10%.In an effort to mitigate the negative situation, according to analysts at CBRE, the landlords at the conclusion of contracts ready to lower rents by increasing a percentage of turnover as a fee for the room. They also agree to establish for tenants of the ability to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement, despite the fact that retailers chose this argument in the struggle with the owners targetrow. Have minor objects that had difficulties even before the crisis, flexibility is much more. Nevertheless mister Fadeev considers that the current situation will hit the most popular torgtsentrov: vacancy they can grow from 1.2% to 3-4%.Street without orientationfree of the crisis on the segment of street retail may be even more pronounced. Head of street retail at CBRE Yulia Nazarova explains that now in Moscow the situation is stable, the vacancy rate in the Central retail streets remains low and does not exceed 9%. In addition, to the optimization of its stores will begin many retailers. These factors, according to the forecasts of Mrs. Nazarova, will lead to an increase in the share of vacant space in the second half of this year. In JLL are expected to increase the vacancy rate in the second quarter by 2-3 percentage points (PP): in the future, the figure will continue to grow until the end of the year, primarily due to ceasing the operation of cafes and restaurants.Source: JLL.In St. Petersburg, projected by Vladislav Fadeev, the increase in the share of vacant premises will be more pronounced: by the end of June the figure could increasetsya 3-4 PP that the city streets began to empty, according to him, it is clear now: catch the eye of numerous signs on the rental premises, after the lifting of the quarantine, their share will increase. “In St. Petersburg in the summer traditionally retail street feels good due to the large number of tourists on Nevsky Prospekt, stables, Rubinstein, Garden, but this year to speak about the significant tourist flow is not necessary”,— says Mr. Fadeev. Senior consultant, direction of street retail company “Shop of shops” Olga Sviridov adds that a significant proportion of tenants street premises are cafés and restaurants, which will apply the most strict rules for the resumption of work. “Most likely, they will start to open only summer porches”— does not preclude it.Offices are preparing for posteriormente of the crisis on the office market while not felt so acutely. The Director of the office real estate Department at Knight Frank Maria Zimina indicates that now in Moscow the vacancy rate varies in the range of 7-9%. “We expect that in the future this share will be not more than 20%, as in previous crisis years,”— said the expert. Increased supply on the background of the release of the area, according to the predictions of Ms. Zimina, will lead to lower rents.Director of Department of office real estate at Colliers International Natalia Bonneli explains that, as in the case of commercial real estate, office market review of lease agreements will begin with the return of the companies to complete the work: in the framework of anti-crisis strategies in crisis-hit enterprises can reduce the occupied area. She expects that the vacancy rate will increase significantly in the second half of the year.In St. Petersburg, the trend increase in the share of vacant space is not marked. Deputy General Director Knight Frank St Petersburg Mikhail Tyunin indicates that the vacancy rate in the city even decreased slightly and now stands at about 4%, the prerequisites to increase now there.Alexandra Mertsalova
