Russian mode “holidays” may 12 will not be renewed. The unconditional return of all the work it does not mean: the new decree of President Vladimir Putin instructs the governors to suspend or restrict the operation of enterprises of all types of ownership, and traffic flows, to combat the spread of the epidemic of the coronavirus. 11 regions of the Russian Federation, according to the government, can afford the actual weakening of the sanitary regime, 22, apparently close to it. Moscow and the Moscow region in these lists is clearly no: in Moscow, the nature of restrictions until may 31, defined by the decree of mayor Sergey Sobyanin may 7 — it retains the April / may mode. The President also announced new measures to support citizens — a doubling of child allowances, lump-sum payments to children in 10 thousand roubles in June and the most affected businesses: tax write-offs for the second quarter and conditionally repayable soft loans to save jobs.The main intrigue of yesterday’s meeting of Vladimir Putin with the government and the regions was a decision imposed from 30 April regime “holidays”. Mode, which ends on may 11, set for the whole country in relation to uniform order restrictions to economic activity — apart from the purely sanitary stops (hitting the catering, leisure sector, service), he allowed no special instructions to stop the operation of all businesses, except the exclusion list. Only the latter were established in each region independently. Whereas no decline in the number of infections with coronavirus in the day, the expected extension of the regime to 16 or 31 may.But this did not happen — may 12 is the first working day after nearly six months of nationwide “output”. The new decree of Vladimir Putin reverses the mechanism of restriction: from today, all businesses operate, except those whose work is restricted or prohibited by heads of regions. They, in turn, should be guided by the sanitary and epidemic situation on the spot — and not even throughout the region, territory and Republic, and in specific areas: the regime of restrictions in a particular city, town, village or district may be tougher or softer. Decree of the President of the regions can also restrict the work of public transport and car travel.Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova at a meeting with the President revealed the government’s assessment criteria and opportunities for regional weakening of the quarantine. Criteria three (they are quite in line with the recommendations of the world health organization): “transfer ratio” in the region of infection revealed infected (less than 1 possibly weakening), the presence of blank “coronavirus” places in health care (50%) and the number of testing�� the presence COVID-19 — more than 70 per 100 thousand population. Now the criteria could correspond to the 11 regions of the Russian Federation, the chance to quickly enter the mode of influence — even at 22. The remaining 52 regions of Russia should hold a “full readiness” in the most rigid form.Note, from the speeches at the meeting, it became obvious that what was happening last six weeks from the point of view of the Kremlin and the White house — not so much the fight against the epidemic in its current scale, but preparing for the epidemic, a lot more wide and long than expected by society. Assessment of the Ministry of health now free, 41.3% of the “coronavirus” of hospital beds. Vladimir Putin reported unclaimed most part produced in Russia and imported a ventilator. He also made it clear that six weeks of restrictions of economic activity is essentially brought the entire economy (forced) sacrifice for better mobilization of health of the Russian Federation to deal with possible very large epidemic, which, however, was not hidden yet at the March meeting in the White house. Termination mode “holidays” to the apparent decline in the number of infected people in Russia is a reason for that — the preparation is completed.Moscow and the Moscow region, macro-region most affected by the coronavirus epidemic in the lists of “11+22” (composition not disclosed), which is obviously not included.Moscow does not change, in fact, nothing: the mayor 7 may have signed his decree that prolongs the Moscow regime until may 31. A statement with a similar meaning did yesterday the authorities of Krasnodar region. A number of regions such as Orel oblast, has managed to soften the hard mode, saving it in cities and regions — centers of the epidemic.New character restrictions, apparently a little worsen economic forecasts focused mainly on the 1.5–2 month quarantine national holidays. Vladimir Putin yesterday demanded that the government formulate national plan of economic quarantine (obviously it was designed before this) and demonstrated that measures for partial compensation of businesses and households from forced constraints of economic activity, adopted in March—April of 2020, not the last. The President presented a package of support for households with children: one-time payment per child 3-16 years (from June 1) 10 thousand RUB, doubling, to 6731 $ /month, “children’s” benefits, extension of other benefits — in sum, this package will affect families with 27 million children and will cost about 250 billion roubles In respect of the business of another support package as follows. In the most affected industries on the list of the government (7 million workers) abolished the taxes (except VAT) for the second quarter of 2020. Self-employed in regions where this status was in 2019 to��Topen (340 thousand people, including Moscow and the Moscow region), back taxes last year in other regions (650 thousand) and SP provides a tax credit to 1 minimum wage. Offer preferential program conditionally repayable lending to the affected sectors wage (at the rate of 1 minimum wage per employee for six months at 2% per annum): while maintaining employment for more than 90% the loan will be charged and 80% charged in half.We will note, the authorities still are not close to any idea of “maintaining internal demand” distribution of money or compensation for economy losses from an exogenous shock from the Fund and budget loans. Direct goal of these programs and new spending yet maintaining employment and preventing a precipitous decline in real disposable income. The magnitude of the surge in unemployment, including in Moscow, the government and the Kremlin don’t know, doubling for April’s official unemployment to 1.4 million people, is the result of an emergency the elimination of jobs because of health lockouts, and simplify the ways of official registration of the unemployed, and temporary growth of unemployment benefits.Dmitry Butrin
