the Russian labor exchange waiting for revolutionary changes: the number of officially registered unemployed in the near future may increase by almost six times — from the current 846,7 thousand to 5.3 million people. The authors of the forecast of the Institute for social policy, HSE attribute this to three causes: the downtime in the economy, a simplified procedure for registration and raising the benefit amount to the minimum wage — 12 130 rubles. Interviewed by “MK” experts assessed the forecast accuracy “towers”.
Actually, we are talking about individuals who have lost their jobs in the formal sector of the economy after March 1. According to researchers from the HSE, given that the government will direct additional benefits almost 33.4 billion rubles, only in the next three months in the employment centres can apply to about a million people. The Ministry also remind us that citizens no longer need to be at the job in person: due to the new functionality of the appropriate portal, it is sufficient to fill in the application and the summary on the website.
well, in theory it looks quite attractive. And what happens in reality? Here, for example, the story of one inhabitant of the Russian region, which he said in the social network. Having retired last year, he came to the exchange, but soon (because he never picked up) was removed from the register and settled in the “grey” sector. And at the end of March 2020, against the background of the epic with the coronavirus, has lost this informal space. Deciding again be referred to the employment centre, our hero, on 2 April I went to the personal account through public services, fill out the application and gathered the documents. Among other things, took photographs of passport first page and page with residence permit, diploma of higher education, INN, and Bank account number where to transfer the unemployment benefit. On the tenth day, the Complainant called and reported that he’s scheduled for a minimum allowance of 1,500 roubles a month for three months. Indignant at the question “why” the answer: because in 2019 he was listed on the stock exchange of labor, however, “white” never settled.
sign up may not attend. Need help, I fired you right now, in a time of declared self-isolation, says Professor of the Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Alexey Prong. In addition, the exchange can not stand indefinitely: if not satisfied with the proposed job, you are removed from the register and deprived of benefits. Plus, in Russia today is not the mass dismissal, they are in fact less than it was in the spring of 2019. Yes, there are people affected by the closure of the enterprises of small and average business, but many of them worked “quasi-legally” and, therefore, cannot claim the official status of unemployed. And what about, say, in a situation when the company forms��flax closed and the employee is sitting at home and no documents to sign are not able to physically? Translate human in a partial mode of employment, send to unpaid leave not without his consent.
with regard to the structures of big business, state-owned corporations, where at the very least unable to cut wages, not to pay bonuses, but certainly not fired. Not to mention the huge mass of state employees: doctors, teachers, officials, security forces, workers of the defense industry, which officially is not threatened. At least not yet. Therefore, says the Tines, Russia is now under the sword of Damocles of dismissal is no more than 20-25% of the workforce. Accordingly, about any six-fold rise in official unemployment can not be and speeches — to speak a maximum of twice.
“Even in the most difficult for the domestic economy 2009, the level of officially registered unemployment, according to Rosstat, grew from 5.3% to 8.3% of the population. But by the end of 2012 unemployment was back to the levels of 2008,” — recalls the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
of Course, there remains “gray” sector, which is estimated at 20-30% of the total economy and, apparently, the crisis will only grow. Even before the onset of the pandemic, many entrepreneurs were able to assess the benefits of remote work, and now they’ve managed to reduce staff. In February of this year, the level of official unemployment in Russia amounted to 4.7% of the working population, said Milchakova. By the end of 2020 this figure could increase to 6-10%, depending on which scenario will the crisis — moderate or more severe. But assumptions about a sixfold increase, according to interlocutors “MK”, seem exaggerated.
