The danger of an attack on the strategically important Crimean bridge to the peninsula annexed by Russia was always considered very great. Now an explosion destroys large parts of the symbolic building. This puts Kremlin boss Putin under massive pressure.
Everyone agrees that the images of the burning Crimean Bridge, which is one of the best-secured structures in Russia, are devastating for Putin’s aspirations to become a great power. Military expert Yuri Fyodorov said the damage to the bridge made it difficult to supply Russian troops in the occupied southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia. That could help Ukraine to attack more effectively in its offensive there.
Already in the summer in Crimea, train traffic was temporarily suspended due to the explosion at an ammunition depot in the Dzhankoye region. Time and again important railway systems are hit during the attacks for the supply of the Russian troops.
Fyodorov also pointed out that the routes from the Russian region of Rostov to the occupied Donetsk region in the Mariupol area are also heavily used for the delivery of supplies. And there, too, the risk of Ukrainian attacks is considered high.
But the analysts see everything as having a psychological effect, because the Crimean bridge that exploded is not just a “sign of Putin’s weakness.” Galliamov said there could be discord in the power apparatus and the danger of a coup could increase.
Galliamov saw little scope for a sharp reaction from the Russian side to the bridge attack. He does not expect a possible use of a tactical nuclear weapon, which has been discussed again and again, because it is neither effective nor brings any advantage. Above all, the attack on the bridge is another sign that Russia will lose the war. He said, “Defeat must be conceded and a peace treaty signed.”
Despite countless threats from Moscow to hit back hard in an attack on the Crimean Bridge, Putin initially held back. He appointed a commission of inquiry and a new commander for the Russian troops in Ukraine, and ordered the bridge to be guarded more closely. New threats? none.
The power apparatus reacted soberly so as not to panic the tens of thousands of Russian tourists on the holiday peninsula, which was still extremely popular in the golden autumn. Everything is taken care of, said Crimea boss Sergei Aksjonov. He said vacationers should be allowed to stay longer at government expense. The subtropical Black Sea idyll was repeatedly shaken by attacks this summer. There have been several incidents involving drones, including around the coastal town of Kerch, where the Crimean Bridge lands.
Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya wrote that Putin is used to playing down and putting up with defeats. Putin often strikes back with a long delay. At the same time, many experts see him as a person driven to war who no longer has the situation under control.
Vladimir Putin is coming under increasing pressure in Russia. Fierce disputes following the recent defeats in the Ukraine war are dividing the president’s power base. “Putin will probably be gone soon,” says historian Harold James. But that doesn’t have to mean only good things.
