According to British investigative journalist and Russia expert Catherine Belton, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised even those closest to him with his attack on Ukraine. She doesn’t think Putin can count on popular support for much longer.
Even Vladimir Putin’s closest confidants were unaware of the president’s plans before Russia invaded Ukraine. “Putin surprised many who have studied him extensively,” says Moscow correspondent Catherine Belton, who has reported on Putin for the Financial Times since 1998. Putin has always presented himself as a cool pragmatist, she says in an interview with Die Zeit. “How could anyone have imagined that he would suddenly rip off the mask he has worked so hard on for 20 years and invade a country that is right on the EU’s doorstep?”
His country’s economy is still relatively stable at the moment, but in a few months the western sanctions will hit it hard, says Belton. “The Russian economy is facing the worst recession in 30 years,” she predicts. After all, 90 percent of factories depend on parts from the West. Still, Putin is popular with most Russians. But Belton doesn’t think it will stay that way for long. There are too many deaths on both sides for that. In addition, most Russians also have relatives in Ukraine. “The Russian state propaganda will not be able to counteract this in the long term,” she says
But Putin’s reputation was largely due to his network. When he took office in 2000, Putrin knitted a network of Russian oligarchs and old KGB friends and used it to expand his power. Belton has written a whole book about it: Putin’s Net, or in English, Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West.
Belton explains that as soon as Putin came to power, he began filling key positions with his former KGB friends. According to Belton, during his time as a KGB officer in East Germany, Putin not only supported a well-known neo-Nazi who played an important role in East Germany’s right-wing scene, but also actively collaborated with the terrorist organization RAF. He proved his power over the oligarchs early on by having Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the boss of a large oil company and probably the richest man in Russia, jailed on flimsy charges. “From then on it was clear who was in charge now,” says Belton.
To protect themselves and their assets, the oligarchs rendered Putin favors and carried out orders. “When the Kremlin calls and asks me to put a billion or two billion dollars into a deal, it’s not a request that can be refused,” one of them told the journalist. With this money, Putin then ensured, among other things, that the elections ended in his interest. Oligarchs have also actively worked abroad to implement Putin’s goals, for example to overthrow the pro-NATO government in Montenegro. Or with Brexit in Great Britain.
Several oligarchs took action following the publication of Belton’s book, largely unsuccessfully, including Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov, who owns three villas on Lake Tegernsee. Abramovich alone complained about 26 passages. But Belton only had to make a few changes. She could not defend herself against all the lawsuits – there were simply too many, according to the journalist.
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