Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin for the first time since the start of the pandemic will go on a trip abroad. In Minsk he will take part in the session of the Eurasian intergovernmental Council. There will gather the heads of the governments of all the countries in the Eurasian economic Union (EEU) of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.
Among the most acute issues — the formation of common markets of gas, oil and petroleum products. The Russian Premier’s visit will be held amid the presidential election campaign in Belarus. After withdrawing from the race the main opposition candidates in Minsk and other cities held protests. What signals takes Moscow to Minsk?
Alexander Lukashenko is one of those politicians who are in difficult situations’t mind going to the aggravation. He seemed a little arrest of the former head of Belgazprombank Victor Babariko on a number of controversial economic charges, including money laundering and the use of some “foreign aid” in his election campaign.
Belarusian authorities also arrested the account of the wife of the Deputy head of the Russian Ministry of Finance Andrey Kruglov, in the past, one of the top managers of “Gazprom” than gave clarity to accusations of “foreign interference” in Belarusian elections. While saying that Moscow could hold Babariko with his obvious nationalist platform against Lukashenko is approximately the same as in his time fantasizing on the subject of support for a candidate in the Ukrainian presidential Viktor Yushchenko against Viktor Yanukovych.
Perhaps that is why in Moscow, on all these election antics, and even dirty hints Lukashenko look almost condescending. So, the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that the case of Belgazprombank, the main shareholders of which are Gazprom and Gazprombank, “it’s not a question of the Kremlin.”
And certainly not a Kremlin, it turns out, the arrest, in fact, a measly 3 million euros in the accounts of the spouse of the Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia. Perhaps, however, that, in making such an indifferent facial expression, Moscow gives to understand that to transform the case of Belgazprombank in the means of blackmailing Russia will not work.
Russian authorities continue outwardly apathetic in regard to all the twists and turns of the Belarusian election campaign, including protests and their brutal suppression. Belarusian opposition decided to join the election staffs of the two shot system moderate candidates Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo in favor of his wife imprisoned political blogger Svetlana Tikhanovski.
However, while opposition forces look insufficient to organize a massive campaign in their favor, so to seriously scare not only Lukashenko, but also loyal to him and acting�� yet very tough force structure. Although in the distant future, if Lukashenko’s regime will fall, the current Belarusian opposition may recall Moscow’s support of Lukashenko and disregard all sorts of contacts with opposition leaders.
Moscow used in Belarus to deal with Lukashenka, and learn about its strong and weak points. And, in General, not without reason comes from the fact that, for all his quirks, moods and the propensity to political blackmail to get him from Russia nowhere. And not only because of the complete differences, so to speak, “political manners” of Europe, but also for purely economic reasons.
Belarus took out that Russia and remains dependent on it in terms of energy supply. The other day was probably as a petty pre-election gift to Lukashenko, softened the conditions of the Russian loan to build Belarusian nuclear power plant. It extended for two years, and the interest on it reduced to 3.3% per annum.
At the meeting of the Eurasian intergovernmental Council probably will rise sharply and the issue of tariffs for Russian gas. Moscow’s position, voiced earlier by Vladimir Putin, is that a single tariff for transportation and transit in the framework of the Eurasian economic Union is possible, but if you have a unified budget and a unified system of taxation.
Belarus even in the framework of the Union state of any General tax does not want to hear. Thus a couple with Armenia Minsk insists on lower prices for Russian gas supplied on the basis that it is now in Europe, “Gazprom” sells it on the backdrop of a sharp drop in energy prices is much cheaper. So, at the end of spring of the price for supply in the EU “Gazprom” the gas was about $ 65 per thousand cubic meters, whereas Belarus is $ 127.
However, before, when long-term prices for Russian gas were years of much lower for the same in Armenia than Europe, no one complained about the injustice of pricing. How will Lukashenka be able to convince Moscow to support him before the elections not only politically, but also ruble and gas may become clear on July 17. But then he still can not avoid intimate conversations about deepening of integration within the Union state.
