Russia’s illegal attack on Ukraine is not going according to plan. After Russia had to give up the conquest of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv after weeks of attempts and high losses, further setbacks followed on the Eastern Front.
A Bundeswehr situation report shows that the Russian forces in the Kharkiv area had already had to move five to ten kilometers to the Ukrainian-Russian border as a result of Ukrainian counter-offensives at the end of last week. This is reported by the “Business Insider”.
“Russian forces are facing increasing territorial gains by Ukrainian forces north of Kharkiv,” it said, alongside a map showing Russian and Ukrainian troop positions along the Eastern Front. “Russian forces have likely been pushed out about 15 kilometers from downtown Kharkiv.” The Russian artillery fire on Kharkiv has also abated, and the Ukrainian counterattacks are so strong that, according to the situation report, the Russian forces even have to move “up to 5 km to 10 km” to the Ukrainian-Russian border.
The activities noted in the Bundeswehr situation report for the Belgorod area – one of the most important starting points of the invasion of Russia – fit in with the territorial losses of the Russians in and around Kharkiv. So the Russian army would refresh associations and units here. “The goal is probably not to fundamentally secure the offensive of the Izium axis [ Izium is a strategically important city south of Kharkiv, Red’s note ], but to strengthen Russian forces in the north of Kharkiv in order to expand the Ukrainian counter-offensive that has been successful for days in the direction of the Ukrainian-Russian border.”
This also jeopardizes the Kremlin’s minimum goal of bringing the Donbass and the separatist areas of Luhansk and Donetsk under its control.
Political developments and voices on the war
According to the Bundeswehr situation report, while Ukraine is succeeding in repelling the Russian invasion in the north and north-east of the country, its armed forces in the south and south-east are still under severe pressure. According to the report, the Ukrainian armed forces in the Luhansk region could not withstand the pressure from the Russian army to a large extent. Russia is also stepping up its activities in the area around the city of Cherson and pushing west across the Dnieper River. There lies the strategically important port city of Odessa, which is one of the main targets of the Russian army. So far, however, the city has not become the target of a large-scale offensive.
However, this could still be the case. Bundeswehr analysts write about Russia’s strategy in eastern Ukraine that the Russian armed forces are trying to secure the Donbass and increase their influence in the region around Kherson – ultimately to “[increase] the pressure on Odessa”.
