The first July estimates of activity in the manufacturing industry indicate that Russian companies have overestimated the speed of output of the economy from the “coronaries”. According to the surveys of the Gaidar Institute, the sector began to decline again release plans, as well as worsen the forecasts of demand and hiring. However, the investment plans of enterprises continued to develop the trend on optimism. Perhaps, amid the slow recovery of external demand continue to hope for the imminent arrival of in the economy budget investment inflows.The July results of surveys, representatives of the manufacturing industry by the Gaidar Institute showed further recovery of the industry. The index of industrial optimism calculated by analysts of the Institute in July rose for the third month in a row and even went “in the black” by improving estimates of reserves and demand, as well as the actual changes of the latter (see chart). However, the roadmaps showed deterioration, as well as forecasts of companies in the demand and recruitment of staff. “Quick exit of the Russian industry from the crisis virus, it seems, has been postponed,”— concludes the author of the calculations of Sergey Tsukhlo, explaining his conclusion by the fact that the company was overly optimistic in the projections after a disastrous April.This is evidenced by including a notable discrepancy between expectations and actual volumes of demand (although the latter in July were already at pre-crisis level by the end of 2019).According to Rosstat, the decline in the treatment fell slightly to 3% in June from 3.4% in may (in annual terms; see “Kommersant” on 17 July). However, given that in June 2020 was one working day more than a year earlier, the fall intensified. Meanwhile, according to CMASF, the reduction processing in June compared with may slowed significantly to 3.6% from 5.9% in annual terms. Such dynamics of output in the sector is more similar to the evaluation results, the IEP, and evaluation CMASF based on the original Rosstat data, however, do not include statistics on closed branches. In addition, the Rosstat index was affected by high base June 2019, when production of computers, electronic and optical products showed more than time and a half jump associated with the completion of a very large order to one of the enterprises (in CMASF exclude from accounting of goods, which are characterized by “idiosyncratic shocks” and data on volumes of production which do not reflect trends in production, analysts explained the differences in the estimates).In other words, even against the backdrop of a cooling of expectations regarding the recovery rate of the industry in July, the actual rebound in economic activity from the bottom in processing could occur on the background of the ongoing ehuds��tion, which was allowed to observe the official statistics. This is evidenced by the investment plans in the industry, which, according to the IEP, in July continued to slowly gain optimism. The lack of deterioration in investment demand also say stabilisation of the annual rate of decline in construction volumes and a slowdown in the decline of rail transport in July (according to Rosstat).”Key factors for slow recovery of manufacturing industries are the slow growth of external demand for Russian exports and weak investment activity. However, against the background of global economic recovery and the focus of domestic fiscal policy (and in the first phase of the plan to exit the crisis) on investment you can expect improvement in these factors in the coming months,” say the economists of Raiffeisenbank.”We simultaneously continue to implement the package of anti — crisis measures with regard to lending programs, business support, delays that were installed back in the spring, and are starting a new investment cycle,” deciphered yesterday the tactics of the government the head of Ministry of Economics Maxim Reshetnikov. According to him, it is expected that by the fourth quarter of 2021, the economy will reach the pre-crisis quarterly GDP. Meanwhile, a notable risk for the implementation of these plans was the decline in revenues from the business in the second quarter of 2020 (see “Kommersant” on 20 July). Recall, if you believe Rosstat, the last few years, the growth capex, when it was detected the official statistics, was defined not by large and medium-sized companies and not the state, and small business.Alexey Shapovalov
