Especially for “the Russian newspaper” George Vashchenko, head of Department of trading operations on the Russian stock market “freedom Finance”, summed up the first of may holidays and called the conditions of considerable strengthening of the ruble.
– the expected increase in trade turnover on the foreign exchange and stock markets, – said the expert. – The center of attention in the international market – the data about oil stocks in the United States.
Three weeks ago growth stocks in Cushing (USA) caused a collapse in the futures market for raw materials with delivery in may. Last week, stocks in Cushing fell to 3.6 million barrels. Oil prices, however, have jumped to $ 30 per barrel, which was immediately marked with a trump. And his words, in turn, strengthened the growth of oil prices.
While this has not led to a noticeable strengthening of the ruble, but the price of oil and is not the only factor affecting the ruble. As soon as the incidence of COVID-19 will show a sharp decline, the ruble will strengthen against the background of expectations of economic recovery. But that will happen before the end of the week the chances are very small.
I expect the USD/RUB within the range of 73-75 for a period of 6-8 may.
On the local market in the center of attention – the decision on additional measures to support the economy, including a possible plan restrictions. In areas where coronavirus is spreading slowly, possible relief, but in big cities the regime of isolation is likely to be renewed. Therefore, the USD/RUB in the environment is likely to remain in the range 73,75-74,75.
In this week began to ruble is not very positive. On Monday, the dollar exchange rate has grown significantly (the maximum was 75,97 rubles). This was due to the fact that world markets reacted negatively to the replica of Donald trump against China. Investors were spooked by the possibility of increasing import duties, which, in fact, means the beginning of a new round of trade war, the United States and China.
But on Tuesday, the tension subsided and the ruble won back the lost positions. In addition, the reason for the strengthening of the ruble began the growth of quotations of Brent oil to $ 29 per barrel. It happened on the background of the entry into force of the agreement by OPEC regarding production cuts of more than 10 million barrels a day and expectations of demand growth as the lifting of quarantine measures in the U.S. and Europe. For Tuesday, the pair USD/RUB was trading in the range 73,80-74,50, closed near 74. The Euro against the ruble was trading in the range of 80-81, the evening course has come to s of 80.30.
