As “Kommersant” found out, regulators and energy market participants continue to debate about the need to reduce reserve capacity in the power system. Scientists believe that the reserve power in 2022 can be reduced almost threefold. This will reduce the user charges of 73 billion rubles per year. Regulators believe that while the results of the calculations are far from practical application. But consumers and experts call much more realistic than those that are used now.In “market Council” (the regulator of energy markets) held a regular meeting on the development of determining the amount of regulatory reserve generating capacity of the Unified energy system (UES) of Russia. According to “Kommersant”, it was presented an updated report of the energy systems Institute named after L. A. Melentyev of the Siberian branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ISEM SB RAS). According to the estimated model, depending on the ratio of system reliability reserve level in 2022 could reach 8,5–11,3% of the maximum consumption capacity, or 14-19 GW, told “Kommersant” sources familiar with the meeting. Now the predictions regulators for 2022 laid on twice the reserve level of 32%, or nearly 53 GW. However, scientists did not consider, for example, the volume of exports and imports, and the factor of water resources, notice three of the interlocutor of Kommersant.The reserve capacity necessary to cover peaks and to maintain reliability in the event of an accident. Its decline could significantly affect the results of competitive selection of capacity (KOM), and therefore, the total payment for capacity. COM for 2022-2025 have already been selected. But at the reserve level, for example, 10.5% of the annual payment in the wholesale market for WHOM would have been lower by 72.7 billion rubles, calculated in the “Community of energy consumers” (which includes industrial energy consumers). The total payment for capacity in 2022 will amount to 1.1 trillion rubles, according to Vladimir Sklyar from “VTB Capital”.Instructions to update the level of reserves for the power system was given by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, the execution was delayed. “The Council of power producers” (comprising generating companies) argue that at this stage work “is not applied in nature” and does not expect to receive relevant data, to talk about digital values of standards of the provision is incorrect.The energy Ministry told “Kommersant” that the current calculations — testing of previously developed methods, in General they are satisfactory, that is, confirm its performance. The power reserve function of a large number of variables, the developed method allows to recalculate the reserve, depending on the external conditions of the planning period and the required level of adequacy. The results of the second phase of no practical importance, because the original data is partially lost its relevance, said the Ministry of energy. Utvirginnie schemes and programs for power sector development, investment and results KOM will not be revised. To the practical application of the developed technique requires the solution of a number of related issues, including the key rationale for the required level of adequacy in the UES of Russia, said the energy Ministry.In the “System operator” (WITH the grid Manager) told “Kommersant” that, also in General agreement with the approaches used in developing the model calculations. But the results are still far from their application, it is necessary to conduct a study on actual source data and without taking into account significant assumptions that were made in this work, stressed WITH.The results of the calculations of the Institute is expected to support the business. “To use surplus reserve to pay for unnecessary power is unacceptable. The ratios obtained in the study is much more realistic and closer to existing indicators adopted in international power systems”,— noted in the “Community of energy consumers”. “In addition to the adjustment of reserve requirements, the reduction of which from three times sounds a bit optimistic, serious attention should be paid to the system of demand forecasting and the approach to planning the development of electric power industry”,— said the partner of Vygon Consulting Alexey Zhikharev. The forecast demand for the last time, he says, overstated at least 3%, because of this, prices in COM is higher by 7-8%.Pauline Smertin
