Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Ivan Kopeikin, head of analytical content “BCS”, calculated the movement of the ruble in the next weeks:
In my opinion, we are waiting for more negative dynamics of the Russian currency, than the significant strengthening, the expert predicts. The first objectives may be 75 rubles against the dollar (figure 24 April 2020) and 84 of the ruble in tandem with the Euro (figure 26 Mar).
this is indicated by several factors. The first government bonds. Risks a full correction of the tool gradually increases as profitability continues to decline. And soon may do in real terms to approach zero. That is connected mainly with the reduction of the key rate, coupled with rising inflation.
All of this is unlikely to make investments in government bonds attractive, especially given the additional risks in the form of sanctions. Over the next few months, the outflow of residents from the bonds of the country may accelerate, and this will put additional pressure on the national currency.
the Second factor is the growth of imports in Russia. It continues virtually unchanged while exports, which leads to additional demand for the currency.
the Third factor – oil. Since August, restrictions on production from the OPEC+ will gradually decrease (on the plan by 2 million barrels per day). And shale of the company it may increase production. In 2016, after the return of prices above $ 40 per barrel shale companies took a little more than 1.5 months to go from the mode of reducing the amount of drilling to increase.
this time above $ 40 per barrel price was fixed around mid-may, so very soon, production in the US starts to recover. In August it will probably coincide with several large supply from the OPEC+, and a low demand due to the deterioration of the situation with coronavirus in many countries. Also it is worth noting the beginning of sales of oil stocks from China.
So that the rise in oil prices is likely short-lived, which is also not positive for the Russian currency.
Therefore, in the coming months, expect gradual weakening of the ruble as against the dollar and the Euro.
