“Shedding” of international institutions brings the future to two basic options, the report says. Any preservation of the most important of early development (UN) and the creation on this basis of new functional infrastructure. Or another bipolarity, the clash of the two giants (the USA and China), but much fiercer that observed in the years of the cold war. Us-China confrontation not reproduce stable model “United States – Soviet Union” of the second half of the twentieth century. Have irreconcilable competition another set of players in a completely different international environment. Nuclear weapons remain the main factor that protects from sliding into a global military catastrophe. But its deterrent potential is not limitless, and further degradation of the institutions will hit him.”
As noted by the research Director of the Valdai club, he is the moderator of the discussion at the presentation Fyodor Lukyanov, two years ago, the Valdai stated that the existing world order “crumbles”, but then they figured it was just exaggeration.
“But now we see that the world really crumbled under the impact of the pandemic, but not her – said Lukyanov. – The trends that were on the global agenda before, catalyzed by its influence. The world has already crossed the line of control processes, and that our assumptions are justified.”
According to the program Director of the club “Valdai” and co-author of the report Timothy Bordachev, the main danger in the coming times – the struggle of the two poles, American and Chinese. “It will be more dangerous than the cold war because the US and China overlap in many areas, and this confrontation is difficult to manage,” he said. And other countries will have to choose which pole they join.
However, about two poles disagree. As said participating in the presentation of the report of the Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov, “we have no confidence in that should stick out a theme with a conflict between China and the United States. In the objective picture of the world emerges not new bipolarity, and integrated polycentric, where it will act many actors and factors”.
According to Ryabkov, it is hoped that “the crisis will lead the world community to the complete savagery, and to a deeper understanding of the foundations of modern development,” global challenges cannot be overcome alone, but only through multilateral cooperation.
However, how viable the idea of the international community? According to another participant in the Valdai club, an American Professor at Yale University, Vice-President and managing Director of Kissinger Associates Thomas Graham, the pandemic has made it clear that the idea of international communityVA – it’s a myth: “there is No effective response from the international community or international organizations we have not seen. At the summit of “Big twenty” was a lot of rhetoric, but we have not seen concrete actions. The UN called for a ceasefire, but nobody responded to it.”
In this case, said Professor Graham, “we have not seen a world leader – neither at country level nor at the level of individual people. It seemed that the leader can become the US, but has witnessed the growth of China and Russia, and the role the US has lost”.
the Optimistic view turned out to be a Chinese Panelist, President of the Shanghai Academy of international studies Chen Dongxiao. He believes that the pandemic “has brought the world to the future.” And the lack of a strong leader – not a big deal. And in his absence can be at least three scenario. This momentary coalition; model “Asia plus”, which will be constrained by Washington or Beijing, and the “Big twenty minus” without the United States and China.
the President of the independent analytical center of the Indian Observer Research Foundation (ORF) Samir Saran, who also participated in the presentation, believes that “it is possible that bipolarity would not be such a bad option if the US, China and Russia will be able to maintain international stability and order, on which the US was not able to single-handedly”. In his opinion, with the current pandemic, neither the US nor China can’t do it alone, so despite the signs of “anarchy”, of a coalition between the States will still be, and we are not waiting for the cold war, and “hot world”.
