Especially for “the Russian newspaper” mark Goikhman, principal analyst at Teletrade, analyzed the prospects of the ruble and appreciated the apocalyptic scenario of his fall, which appeared this week.
mark, what is the basis of positivity for our currency? Seems these days no special event has occurred.
Marc Goikhman: Do the dollar retreated this week from fresh highs at 74.5 rubles below 73 rubles. A definite positive for our currency associated with a General optimism and increased moods the propensity to risk in financial markets.
And they, in turn, is caused by overcoming the acute phase of the pandemic and the gradual recovery of the world economy. This increases the demand for the black gold while reducing excess inventories and increasing oil prices. Brent quotes rise to the borders around 46 dollars per barrel.
Such price is sufficient to keep the ruble on the positive? One of our experts named the sum of 50 dollars.
Marc Goikhman: In this case, it is psychologically important that the price of oil exceeded the level of 45.4 per dollar, which went a sharp collapse of quotations in March of this year. This causes a General weakening of the dollar on the market as a protective asset.
he Also loses because of the remaining high incidence of coronavirus in the United States. And because of the uncertainty of the presidential election.
What will happen to the ruble in the remaining days of this week?
Marc Goikhman: Thursday the ruble can be relatively important emerging data on consumer inflation in Russia in July, and the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
But during the day he probably still remains within the range of 72-73,6 rubles per dollar and 85.8 – 87,2 ruble per Euro.
on Friday, the market participants expect significant quotes a report on the US labor market, as well as indices of exports and imports of China. The whole week probably will remain partially positive for the ruble.
And then what? We can hope for the strengthening of the Russian currency?
Marc Goikhman: In the coming days we are talking only about special strengthening, but within the overall trend to weaken.
August may be traditionally unfavorable for the Russian currency. And next week, can manifest the factors of weakening. A lot of them, and they are no less significant than the positive drivers winning in the first days of August.
the Fall in oil prices, rising demand for dollars and euros in Russia? What else?
Marc Goikhman: rising oil prices are really capable to stop, in particular, due to the fact that since August, increasing production by two million barrels a day by OPEC agreement+.
And the demand for currency in Russia is growing. Let me remind you, buy it for the conversion of foreign shareholders of Russian companies, ��holokauscie in the last days of dividends in rubles. Increase purchases of imported goods external open borders for tourists, also makes the demand for the currency.
on the other hand, the Central Bank of Russia at the increase in oil prices reduces sales of foreign currency. On the volume of such operations for the next month he will announce next week. Thus, the deteriorating balance of payments – reduced the inflow of foreign currency and increasing its outflow. This is negative for the ruble.
in addition, some weakening in the future, there is a reason to increase revenues of the budget deficit, the earnings of exporters, even for Russian enterprises competing with imports.
to this we must add, and U.S.-China relations. It will be important summing up of the first phase of the trade agreement China and the United States, which is expected at their bilateral meeting on August 15. The fact that the agreement failed because of the pandemic. This can create additional tension and negative for risk assets.
And finally, in August we will see a new stage in the strengthening of the dollar?
Marc Goikhman: Yes, it is possible in the coming weeks the renewal of the strengthening of the dollar in the area is 75 rubles and above as a continuation of the General trend of recent months. About it rightly says in the new review of Raiffeisenbank.
Bloomberg more than 100 rubles per dollar promises!
Marc Goikhman: the Apocalyptic scenario is Bloomberg on the dollar – “much over 100” is unlikely in the short term.
It pleases. This rise of the dollar would be a disaster for us, right?
Marc Goikhman: Too sharp and quick fall of the Russian currency to levels desorientiert production, will weaken the opportunities of investment and profit making business in Russia.
the Significant rise of consumer prices because up to half of goods or materials imported. Respectively, the more reduced the real incomes of the population, which has fallen 8 percent in the second quarter. There will be panic on the currency and consumer market.
But if the situation did begin to develop in this direction, we have something to defend themselves?
Marc Goikhman: our economic authorities have the necessary tools to prevent such a situation. In Russia, the low share of debt in GDP, the huge reserves in the national welfare Fund and foreign exchange reserves, a positive trade balance with a significant excess of exports over imports.
But, apparently, this is not enough to strengthen the ruble?
Marc Goikhman: a Positive scenario is a significant strengthening of the ruble as unlikely as described is extremely negative.
one can Hardly assume, for example, amplification to dependenices levels of 60-65 rubles per dollar. In the best case, it is necessary to speak about moving towards 66-67 rubles. But for this to emerge exceptionally favorable circumstances that now have no reason to.
namely, a complete victory over the pandemic, a return to high growth rates in the world and in Russia, higher oil prices in the district 50-55 dollars per barrel. And no escalation of trade and tariff conflicts between the US and China and other countries.
