Germany’s key industry, the manufacturing of automobiles, back would like to Ensure the start of the Year. Back then, it was “only” supply chains and the market of China, which fell together in February, with a sales decline of 80 percent. In the meantime, the bands are in Germany, Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW still have a direct, financial consequences for the Auto giant.
Volkswagen, for example, lose because of the production stop of two billion Euro, each week, as group chief Herbert Diess announced last week. The only market in which the wolf Burger currently make any sales, is China. Diess stressed that VWs reserves, its lush, but the standstill could “not indefinitely,” hold on. Small Caps Champion: your 3 pillars for a successful wealth accumulation. Successfully and safely in addition to values invest. (Partner quote) Here is an exclusive free trial!
S&P downgraded the credit rating in the car industry, starting at
Daimler wants, however, to accommodate the Bloomberg news Agency estimated that between 10 and 15 billion Euro in a new line of credit, to be prepared for the crisis. However, financial assistance from outside could be really expensive, because with Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has downgraded the first credit rating Agency in the hard-hit industry already.
So, the credit rating of BMW of “A+” sank to “A”, in the case of Daimler the credit rating fell from “A-” to “BBB+”. Daimler’s credit Rating, putting it just two notches above the level that allows the investment professionals of the “junk” talk. Only Volkswagen downgraded by S&P of “BBB+” is not on, however, the Outlook here is not more “stable”, but “negative”. Daimler 27,20 EUR +0.01 in (+0,02%) Xetra
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After all: The DZ Bank sees the car manufacturers are financially much better placed than it was even ten years ago, shortly after the financial crisis. At the same time, the experts of the Bank note that it is not possible to predict is the extent to which the turmoil of the financial crisis comparable to the present Situation.
industry. Overcapacity in millions
The rating Agency S&P expects a sales decline of 15 percent this year 2021 to a subsequent recovery, wherein the pre-crisis level, not so quickly. Of such a scenario is also Germany’s best-known industry expert is, Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. The expected currently at the University of St. Gallen teaching Professor, that Germany’s car makers have come through the crisis and massive Overcapacity. dpa/Bernd Thissen automotive expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer.
In the optimistic scenario expects Dudenhöffer, with 3.8 million Cars produced in Germany in the current year. For comparison: in 2018, the domestic production stood at 5.1 million vehicles. Germany’s automakers have excess capacity of 1.3 million vehicles, in the best case.
In the pessimistic scenario, the production decreases to 3.4 million Cars – the “lowest domestic output since the year 2000,” wrote Dudenhöffer in his study. According to Duden Bonhoeffer’s view, the supply chains are not the Problem: “Corona is not the car industry to a supply chain Problem, but a serious, long-term demand problem.”
flies Up to the break-in, can years go by
recovered the industry from the assumed 15-percent slump in the demand, it will take years, predicts Dudenhöffer. Measured in terms of the growth rates after the financial crisis, the US economy is in the best case, in only five years to recover would, in the case of Germany, it would be, however, for 17 years, and still eight years, it should grow GDP annually by two percent. Similar applies to the shaky economies of the southerners, who are not shrunk, in the case of Italy and Spain, even since 2009. With Stock Selection in Europe, you will achieve excess Returns with System! (Partner offer) Now 30 days free of charge test!
Dudenhöffer expects a “growth boom” after the crisis. “The theory of the “V-growth” – so that you can recover from the crisis quickly – standing on shaky Foundation,” wrote Dudenhöffer. The Overcapacity will get that one after years.
Therefore, should be expected with a significant reduction in production capacity. Even under optimistic assumptions, the “100,000 jobs could be” eliminated. That’s the equivalent of a full twelve percent of the car manufacturers and suppliers in Germany.
A radical idea to help the negative VAT
Against this collapse to help of short-time working money and Liquidity support – “which are currently distributed with the watering can” – only partly, warns Dudenhöffer. Berlin fights, according to Dudenhöffer “with the wrong weapons.” Really against break-in of a revival of demand, so the expert would help.
Duden Bonhoeffer’s proposal for this purpose: A discharge on value added tax. “Across the Board the suspension of the VAT would be for higher-value products a quickly implementable measure,” wrote the expert.
Even a negative VAT attracts Dudenhöffer into consideration. “Negative interest rates are today, many Central banks in the normal case [sic]. Under such conditions, a discussion of a negative VAT should be a taboo,“ argued Dudenhöffer. His proposal would work on cars, VAT is not applicable. The price would fall to around 20 percent. The estate would zurückholfen the automaker, however, from the tax office again.
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