In government policies that do not impose General restrictions of economic activity — lockdown the spread of coronavirus epidemic in any case leads to unemployment as shown by the data of economists in South Korea, where Loktionov was not a “natural” growth rate of this unemployment is 2-3% at achievement level 1 case per 1 thousand population against 5-6% in the US and the UK. We are talking about short-term effects caused by the immediate reaction of business owners and hired workers, long-term impact of the epidemic on unemployment in South Korea begins to emerge only now. Industry picture be of unemployment and employment change, according to the researchers, corresponds to the “forced” with a few changes — decreased less jobs in the trade.Three researcher — Min song Om from Korean Myongji University, Dream Yun Li, University of London, Queen Mary and Yoon-Seok Shin from the University Saint-Louis in Washington — intelligence agencies of South Korea and a number of surveys have investigated the nature of the surge in unemployment in the regions of South Korea in February and March 2020, which was observed at this time, the spread of coronavirus epidemic. Studies in the Preprint of the article “COVID-19 does not require Loktionov in order to destroy jobs,” published in the series publications of the American Association NBER at the end of may, the work is based on data for a sample of 35-40 thousand households in South Korea.We will remind, South Korea along with Sweden — one of the few countries that refused strategy to counter the spread of the coronavirus pandemic by economy-wide or regional Loktionov, the country also has not introduced mandatory isolation of the elderly, “social distance” was purely Advisory the government put on the spot detection of disease and only local quarantine measures. Consequently, South Korea may act as a “control group” for other economies in terms of rising unemployment, caused by a change in expectations, “natural” solutions to business owners and hired managers. Note that in this unemployment a minimum of components associated with changes in the current export demand for most of the trading partners, in February—March, he could only be associated with the changing demand in China (it’s large, but not dominant partner of South Korea in the trade), however, there is a component associated with the international restriction of aviatrice and tourist flows. The effects associated with the incapacity of large numbers of workers, it is not reflected: the total number of cases in South Korea on June 1, according to official data, to 11.5 million with 271 dead. The overall unemployment rate in South Korea at this time is almost not changed.As shown by the data of economists, a “natural” level of unemployment, the epidemic still increases when the level of infection in 1 person on 1 thousand population it is between 2% and 3% increase in unemployment on the ILO. Calculated by a similar method for the same level of infection in the US and the UK the figure is related to longaunay is 5-6% — so, by themselves, without lockdown coronavirus lead to a surge of unemployment at the level of 3-4 percentage points. Industries in which South Korea is localized in the February and March job losses similar to the rest of the world is hotels and restaurants, service industry sports and entertainment, employment grew in public administration, Finance and production. The main differences from the “rest of the world” in this matter in South Korea — specific, but a small decrease in employment in IT and the same (but minimal in comparison with other countries) — in retail. As in other countries, this kind of unemployment is stronger affects men, paid employees and small businesses — the latter is more pronounced in relation to the service, hotels and restaurants, as well as education — and especially large company for property management. The prospects of this sector owners property managers companies in South Korea soberly assess in February, although it can be assumed that their decision on the closure of jobs affected and the probability is high that the South Korean government will not resist the temptation to solve the problem of the coronavirus lockdown is already reflected in the prices of real estate and its future income, and hence employment.Dmitry Butrin
