Unlike in the past two pandemic years, we are currently experiencing a wave of infections in summer. What does this mean for autumn? Will the summer wave be an advantage or a disadvantage for us? We asked experts.
The summer wave is rolling. The incidences are increasing, and the situation is also becoming increasingly tense in the intensive care units. It is the first time that the number of infections has also increased rapidly in the summer months. In the first two summers of the pandemic, however, the situation was much more relaxed. !function(){var t=window.addEventListener?”addEventListener”:”attachEvent”;(0,window[t])(“attachEvent”==t?”onmessage”:”message”,function(t){if (“string”==typeof t.data
Blame for the summer wave is the Omikron variant BA.5. It is considered even more infectious than the previously dominant BA.2 variant and now accounts for 77 percent of new infections.
But what does it mean for the further course of the pandemic if we already have increasing numbers of infections? So if inevitably more people get infected than in previous summers. Does this mean we are better prepared for autumn? Will the next wave be smaller because it is already so surprisingly high? The assessment of the experts.
The fact that infections are already increasing in summer this year could definitely have an effect on the subsequent wave in autumn and winter and thus even become an advantage, explains statistician Katharina Schüller.
Because some fall ill and become infected in the summer, they build up immunity for the cold months. The infection process could thus be equalized and the burden on hospitals and intensive care units spread over several months, according to the head of the German Statistical Society.
The President of the German Society for Immunology, Christine Falk, was even clearer. “We were able to measure that a triple vaccination and a subsequent corona infection leads to an even better immune reaction,” she said “SWR”. That gives cautious hope for the approaching autumn wave. “Due to the many infections and the increasing proportion of people who have been vaccinated three times, we are already building up better and better basic immunity in the population.”
However, this is not a guarantee for a more relaxed winter wave. Because, as the two experts emphasize, it also depends on the variants that prevail in autumn and winter. According to Schüller, it depends on how strong the immunization effect of the population is. As well as how well the vaccines protect.
Falk also sees a danger in new variants. “Due to the large number of summer vacationers, there is of course a risk that other corona variants will be brought in from holiday regions. Then the situation will look completely different again.”
Data expert Schüller does not think it makes any sense to use force to bring about a particularly high wave just so that none comes in winter. “We can’t be sure that the math will work out like that,” she warns.
Instead, she recommends clear rules to prevent hospitals from being overloaded. For example, certain threshold values could be decided upon, from which certain rules apply. “Then we would have measures when we actually need them and also clarity as to why something applies,” she explains.
Epidemiologist Timo Ulrichs, on the other hand, is less optimistic. When asked by FOCUS Online, he said: “I do not share the assessment that high numbers of infections in summer will reduce the expected wave of pandemics in autumn and winter.” Because: The sub-variants responsible for the summer wave had many immune escape Characteristics. This means that “those infected in summer could definitely get it again in autumn”.
Rather, we would have to be prepared “that the autumn wave will follow the summer wave and be much higher than without a summer wave,” warns the epidemiologist.
He assumes that the winter wave will be at least as high as the last omicron wave, possibly even higher. “Even if the proportion of hospitalizations and severe Covid-19 courses will be smaller than in Delta times, many people will still have to be cared for,” he emphasizes. “We are already seeing more corona patients in intensive care units again, and the trend is rising – and that will continue in autumn and winter.”
So far it has not been possible to say with certainty how the pandemic will develop in the coming months. How high the number of infections actually increases depends heavily on the respective sub-variant, Ulrichs agrees with the experts here. “But also from our preparations,” he adds. “The reintroduction of a general obligation to wear masks indoors would already make sense now, and we should prepare as best we can with vaccination.”
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