Thousands of experts analyze the course of the war in Ukraine every day. One thing always stands out: Timothy Snyder is certain that Putin is heading for defeat. Who is the star professor who wrote off the Kremlin ruler long ago?
Thousands of experts, political scientists and military historians report on the war of aggression in Ukraine every day via Twitter, blogs and think tanks. Timothy Snyder is one who is getting a lot of attention. Despite Russia’s apparent superiority, he has practically written off Putin.
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As he writes on his blog: “Russia has reached the stage of fighting in this war because it would be embarrassing not to fight”. Snyder believes that Putin should resign: “Putin has historically given the impression of being a good player. But a good player also knows when to give up.” But who is the star professor anyway?
Timothy Snyder is an American historian and professor at the famous Yale University. He received his doctorate from Oxford University in the UK in political science and European history. As a permanent scholarship holder at the “Institute for Human Sciences” in Vienna, he is internationally positioned. His work mainly deals with Eastern European history, the Holocaust, the history of the Soviet Union and the history of Ukraine.
Snyder’s writing has inspired poster exhibitions, a film, a sculpture, a punk rock song, a rap song, a play, and an opera. He is also quoted at political demonstrations around the world. Numerous of his books have received awards: Especially as a Russia expert, his books “The Road to Unfreedom – Russia Europe America” and “Bloodlands – Europe between Hitler and Stalin” are currently more in demand than ever.
There is no denying that Snyder is one of the most renowned Russia experts internationally. But on what basis does he come to the conclusion that Putin will lose the war and that his military power is overestimated?
According to Snyder, one sign that Putin is “losing control” is that former top Russian politicians are increasingly warning the West of catastrophic consequences. The fact that not Putin himself, but figures such as Dmitry Medvedev are increasingly taking the floor is a clear indication that the Kremlin boss is increasingly losing domestic political control.
Snyder also sees preparations for a power struggle over the successor to the Russian president already underway. As an example, he again cites the former Russian President Medvedev, who was long considered a liberal competitor of Putin and now spreads anti-Semitic and anti-Western hate speech on Telegram. In this way, according to the historian’s analysis, the relevant persons would already position themselves for the successor. Snyder: “For my part, I tend to take the harsh statements as evidence that important Russians believe Russia is losing.”
Putin is also under increasing pressure from within the Russian population: so far, Snyder said, he has primarily gained the consent of the Russian population through repression. While Putin can count on support on television shows, he cannot count on citizens risking their own bodies. According to Snyder, most Russians’ enthusiasm for the war is only played. If Russia lost the war, all Russians would blame Putin. According to the US expert, Putin can only escape this fate by winning.
According to Snyder, things are not going as well for the Russians on the battlefield as expected: the counter-offensives by the Ukrainian defenders are increasingly causing problems for Russia. The Ukrainian troops would switch from the defensive to the counter-offensive. The reason for this is the successful attacks by Ukraine, which led to difficulties on the Russian side.
Technical problems are also holding up Russia, according to Snyder: The British secret service reported on a Russian repair shop for military vehicles near the Ukrainian border. At least 300 damaged vehicles, including tanks, are believed to be here. It poses enormous challenges for Moscow to repair and maintain the many damaged combat vehicles. This stalled the Russian offensive, Snyder said.
Bloodlands
A major reason for the problems that Russia is having with its “special operation” is the US-supplied Himar rocket launchers. Because, according to Snyder, Russian soldiers prefer to fight from a distance: “Russian warfare depends on artillery, on killing at long range”. So far, Russia has had an advantage thanks to more artillery pieces and grenades. However, the character of the war will change now that Ukraine has more accurate, longer-ranged weapons, Snyder said. He thinks a slow Russian retreat is likely because they are not good fighters in close combat.
The real impact of Western sanctions against Russia will only materialize shortly, predicts Snyder. The sanctions would hurt, especially if the Ukrainian army began to show a technological superiority that Russia could not keep up with without imports.
Western support is crucial here: “For the economy to make the difference, governments (particularly those in Berlin) must be willing to use their economic power creatively and swiftly in ways that would be inappropriate in peacetime,” he said. writes the US historian.
From the start, the Russian invasion was based on Putin’s flawed notion that the Ukrainian people would embrace his destruction and greet Russian soldiers as “brothers,” Snyder writes. “The Ukrainian nation and state have been transformed by this war, but not in a way that benefits Russia.” Ukraine has shown that it fights for its country and democratic values and does not recognize Putin as the leader. Russia’s only one Snyder writes that the only way to victory is to convince the West that Ukraine cannot win.
Of course, there are also dissenting voices to Snyder’s analysis. Renowned professor and best-selling author Lee Siegel, for example, recently criticized Snyder’s statements as a “one-man panic industry” whose profitability depends “on his prophecies never being fulfilled”.
Jörg Baberowski, Professor of Eastern European History at Humboldt University in Berlin, also believes that Putin will prevail at the end of the war. In contrast to Snyder, in an interview with “t-online”, he does not rate the Western economic sanctions as effective: “I’m afraid that the gentlemen in the Kremlin have a strategy for how to deal with the countries of the West in the long term. We don’t have it ‘ said Baberowski.
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