Vice President Kamala Harris is making significant strides in narrowing the gap between her and former President Donald Trump in the state of Texas, according to the latest poll results released by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University. The poll, the first statewide survey conducted since President Joe Biden exited the presidential race, shows Harris trailing Trump by only five points, cutting his lead in half.
Renée Cross, senior executive editor at the Hobby School, provided insights from the poll during an interview with Texas Standard. The survey, conducted between August 5th and August 16th, reached out to 1,365 likely Texas voters, with 878 of these likely voters having been interviewed earlier in the summer. This allowed for a comparison of how opinions have shifted among the same group of likely voters over time.
Demographically, the poll revealed that Harris is gaining ground among certain key groups. Gen Z voters, in particular, have shown overwhelming support for Harris, with a 16-point increase in her favorability compared to Biden. Additionally, women voters in Texas have shifted their preference towards Harris, now favoring her by six points over Trump. Independents in the state have also shown a shift towards Harris since the previous summer survey.
The tightening of the race in Texas mirrors national trends, indicating a potential momentum for Democrats in the state. Despite Texas traditionally being a red state, the recent changes at the top of the ticket have created an unexpected shift in dynamics, with Harris gaining traction among voters.
In addition to the presidential race, the survey also examined the closely watched Senate race between Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred. The results show Senator Cruz leading with 46.6 points, while Allred trails closely behind at 44.5 points, a difference of only two points. This close margin suggests that the Senate race in Texas will be one to watch as the election approaches.
With the Democratic National Convention taking place on the final day of the survey, the results do not yet reflect any potential impact from the event. However, conventions traditionally provide a bump in support for candidates, and the excitement surrounding Kamala Harris and Tim Walz could influence Texas numbers in the coming weeks.
One of the standout findings from the poll was the favorability ratings of leading candidates and office holders in Texas. While Colin Allred, Governor Greg Abbott, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick received the highest net favorability ratings, Kamala Harris saw a significant increase in her favorability numbers. In June, her favorability rating was -14, but it has since improved to -3. Harris’ overall net favorability rating is now at 48%, compared to Trump’s 49%, indicating strong support for her even in a traditionally conservative state like Texas.
Overall, the poll results suggest a shifting political landscape in Texas, with Harris making gains and tightening the race with Trump. The upcoming election promises to be an exciting and closely contested one, with both the presidential and Senate races drawing significant attention from voters across the state. As the campaign season progresses, further shifts in public opinion and support are likely to occur, making Texas a key battleground to watch in the upcoming election.